{"id":62032,"date":"2025-05-15T06:00:56","date_gmt":"2025-05-15T10:00:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/theicct.org\/?p=62032"},"modified":"2025-05-14T17:35:44","modified_gmt":"2025-05-14T21:35:44","slug":"zero-emission-planes-hit-turbulence-what-do-recent-delays-mean-for-net-zero-aviation-by-2050-may25","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/theicct.org\/zero-emission-planes-hit-turbulence-what-do-recent-delays-mean-for-net-zero-aviation-by-2050-may25\/","title":{"rendered":"Zero-emission planes hit turbulence: What do recent delays mean for net-zero aviation by 2050?"},"content":{"rendered":"[et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ specialty=”on” _builder_version=”4.22.1″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding=”0px|||||” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column type=”3_4″ specialty_columns=”3″ _builder_version=”4.16″ custom_padding=”|||” global_colors_info=”{}” custom_padding__hover=”|||”][et_pb_row_inner _builder_version=”4.22.1″ _module_preset=”default” custom_margin=”|||-80px|false|false” custom_margin_tablet=”|||0px|false|false” custom_margin_phone=”|||0px|false|false” custom_margin_last_edited=”on|phone” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column_inner saved_specialty_column_type=”3_4″ _builder_version=”4.22.1″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” text_text_color=”#36424A” text_line_height=”1.8em” global_colors_info=”{}”]Just a few years ago, proposals for zero-emission planes (ZEPs) were regularly attracting headlines for their potential to dramatically reduce global carbon emissions from aviation. But now things are rather different, as the past several months have been filled with setbacks. Let\u2019s consider what this means for efforts by policymakers and the aviation industry to achieve aviation\u2019s <\/span>target of net-zero carbon dioxide (CO<\/span>2<\/span><\/sub>) emissions<\/span><\/a> by 2050.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The most high-profile setback came when Airbus <\/span>pushed back its ambitious goal<\/span><\/a> to introduce hydrogen-powered commercial aircraft in 2035. Citing a mix of infrastructure challenges and slower-than-expected technology development, it made the announcement during the Airbus Summit 2025 and <\/span>expects a 5-10-year delay<\/span><\/a>. Airbus isn\u2019t alone. Other manufacturers have recently dialed back plans or <\/span>hit financial difficulties<\/span><\/a>. Why this turbulence? Well, as with Airbus, the primary challenges are technology and infrastructure.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Technologically, battery-electric aircraft remain <\/span>limited to serving short routes (less than 500 km)<\/span><\/a> due to severe battery weight limitations. <\/span>Jet fuel is still roughly 50 times more energy dense than today\u2019s most advanced lithium battery<\/span>. While jet fuel contains about 43 MJ\/kg of energy, the most advanced lithium-ion batteries today offer only around <\/span>0.9\u20131.0 MJ\/kg, making them roughly 40 to 50 times less energy dense by weight<\/span><\/a>. The additional battery weight increases the total mass the aircraft must lift and thus the energy to sustain flight\u2014creating a compounding penalty. Hydrogen technologies such as fuel cells and combustion engines can offer greater range but face their own set of engineering hurdles, particularly concerning the need to develop lighter hydrogen storage tanks and more powerful fuel cells to minimize their significant mass and volume penalty. One of the major aircraft manufacturers, Embraer, recently pushed back its Energia project, a family of low-emission hybrid-electric aircraft, because both battery and hydrogen fuel cell advancements have been <\/span>slower than hoped<\/span><\/a>. This necessitated the delay of the project from its original intended entry-into-service year of 2035.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Infrastructure is probably an even bigger barrier. <\/span>Airbus noted<\/span><\/a> that inadequate hydrogen infrastructure\u2014<\/span>including hydrogen production, distribution, and fueling facilities, airport expansion and modification, and new safety protocols<\/span><\/a>\u2014is one of the major roadblocks to its ZEROe program, the flagship hydrogen-powered aircraft initiative aimed at launching the world\u2019s first commercial ZEP. Indeed, <\/span>green hydrogen, which is produced using renewable electricity and water electrolysis, comprised less than 1% of global hydrogen production in 2024<\/span><\/a>. And even if green hydrogen were being produced in large volumes, the infrastructure to reliably distribute hydrogen remains sparse and expensive to build. Regulatory frameworks are also lagging, and that\u2019s creating uncertainty and slowing investment. For example, Airbus <\/span>recently reduced<\/span><\/a> the budget for ZEROe by 25%.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

What about the innovative startups we heard about a few years ago? Universal Hydrogen, a U.S.-based company that aimed to decarbonize regional aviation by retrofitting planes to run on hydrogen fuel cells, <\/span>achieved a remarkable goal<\/span><\/a> when it flew the largest aircraft ever on hydrogen-electric power. However, Universal shut down a year later <\/a><\/span>after failing to secure enough funding to continue research and development. Eviation, an electric-plane startup based in Washington state, <\/span>paused its Alice program and laid off most of its employees<\/span><\/a>. That these firms struggled to secure the substantial funding and regulatory support necessary to scale is a lesson for the aviation industry: Zero-emission flight requires sustained and coordinated investment and collaboration beyond the reach of individual companies.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

What does this all mean for aviation\u2019s climate targets? Well, our <\/span>recent study<\/span><\/a> found that even with optimistic sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) and fuel efficiency assumptions, the net-zero carbon target could be exceeded as early as 2037. Therefore, to meet the 2050 net-zero target, accelerating efforts to develop ZEPs seems critical. But with Airbus and others suggesting that 2035 is infeasible, <\/span>achieving the net-zero target by 2050 looks more difficult than ever<\/span><\/a>.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

This puts more pressure on SAF, technical efficiency improvements, and operational optimization to fill the gap. Due in part to this reality, hybrid-electric solutions have emerged as intermediate alternatives because they can be integrated in the medium term and offer moderate emission reductions (even though they are short of climate goals, including when combined with SAFs).\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The upcoming update to our <\/span>Vision 2050 report<\/span><\/a> will reflect the latest industry realities and reassess the role that ZEPs, SAFs, and other mitigation measures must play to realistically meet global targets. It will also feature an updated version of the ICCT\u2019s net-zero aviation roadmap, which for the first time will include the climate impact of non-CO<\/span>2<\/span><\/sub> emissions.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Ultimately, stakeholders have to ask: Are hydrogen tanks getting lighter? Are fuel cells getting more powerful? Is battery chemistry improving? The recent setbacks are a wake-up call and these indicators will tell us if ZEPs can move from prototypes to actionable climate solutions. Even if there is continued progress on the technology side, the business case will need to be addressed\u2014both the capital and regulatory aspects\u2014to make ZEPs into a reality. In the meantime, as important as ZEPs are to the long-term solution, to stay on track for 2050 it\u2019s likely that policymakers and the aviation industry will have to focus on alternative measures that can deliver medium-term emission savings.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span>
\n[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column_inner][\/et_pb_row_inner][\/et_pb_column][et_pb_column type=”1_4″ _builder_version=”4.16″ custom_padding=”|||” global_colors_info=”{}” custom_padding__hover=”|||”][et_pb_text admin_label=”Title” module_id=”policedepartment” _builder_version=”4.22.1″ _module_preset=”680e9250-5983-47d2-b125-d1c0a97feb17″ text_text_color=”#007A94″ header_text_color=”#007A94″ custom_margin=”||||false|false” global_colors_info=”{}”]\n

Author<\/strong><\/span><\/h6>\n[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text admin_label=”Author” _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” text_text_color=”#36424A” header_text_color=”#36424A” custom_margin=”||||false|false” custom_padding=”||14px||false|false” global_colors_info=”{}”]\"\"<\/strong><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Deniz Rhode<\/strong><\/span>
\nAssociate Researcher<\/em><\/span>[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_divider color=”#36424A” divider_weight=”2px” _builder_version=”4.21.0″ _module_preset=”default” custom_margin=”-50px|||||” custom_padding=”23px|||||” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_divider][et_pb_text admin_label=”Title” module_id=”policedepartment” _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”680e9250-5983-47d2-b125-d1c0a97feb17″ text_text_color=”#007A94″ header_text_color=”#007A94″ custom_margin=”-15px||||false|false” global_colors_info=”{}”]\n

Related reading<\/strong><\/span><\/h6>\n[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_image src=”https:\/\/theicct.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/02\/AdobeStock_515285168_Editorial_Use_Only-scaled.jpeg” title_text=”MONTREAL, CANADA – NOVEMBER 4, 2018: Logo of the international civil aviation organization, on their heaquarters office. Also called OACI, it’s the UN body regulating civil aviation” _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_image][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding=”||71px|||” global_colors_info=”{}”]ICAO\u2019s 2050 net-zero CO2<\/sub> goal for international aviation<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

Analyzes the ICAO commitment to creating a global net-zero CO2<\/sub> aviation sector by 2050.
\n[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_divider color=”#36424A” divider_weight=”2px” _builder_version=”4.21.0″ _module_preset=”default” custom_margin=”-50px|||||” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_divider][et_pb_code admin_label=”blog post meta shortcode” _builder_version=”4.22.2″ _module_preset=”default” custom_margin=”-30px||||false|false” custom_margin_tablet=”||||false|false” custom_margin_phone=”||||false|false” custom_margin_last_edited=”on|phone” global_module=”27472″ global_colors_info=”{}”]