{"id":59753,"date":"2025-04-11T07:07:07","date_gmt":"2025-04-11T11:07:07","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/theicct.org\/?p=59753"},"modified":"2025-04-11T08:12:53","modified_gmt":"2025-04-11T12:12:53","slug":"four-changes-would-make-the-imo-net-zero-framework-more-effective-apr25","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/theicct.org\/four-changes-would-make-the-imo-net-zero-framework-more-effective-apr25\/","title":{"rendered":"Four changes would make the IMO Net-Zero Framework more effective"},"content":{"rendered":"[et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ specialty=”on” _builder_version=”4.22.1″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding=”0px|||||” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column type=”3_4″ specialty_columns=”3″ _builder_version=”4.16″ custom_padding=”|||” global_colors_info=”{}” custom_padding__hover=”|||”][et_pb_row_inner _builder_version=”4.22.1″ _module_preset=”default” custom_margin=”|||-80px|false|false” custom_margin_tablet=”|||0px|false|false” custom_margin_phone=”|||0px|false|false” custom_margin_last_edited=”on|phone” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column_inner saved_specialty_column_type=”3_4″ _builder_version=”4.22.1″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” text_text_color=”#36424A” text_line_height=”1.8em” global_colors_info=”{}”]\n

On April 11, the International Maritime Organization\u2019s (IMO) Marine Environment Protection Committee (MEPC 83) approved the Regulations on the IMO Net-Zero Framework. Meant to lower the well-to-wake (WTW) greenhouse gas fuel intensity (GFI) of ships over 5,000 gross tonnage, the direct compliance target requires a 21% GFI reduction by 2030 increasing to 43% by 2035 compared to the 93.3 gCO<\/span>2<\/span>eq\/MJ fossil fuel baseline of 2008. No GFI target has been set for 2050. Shipowners who don\u2019t attain GFI targets will either buy credits, use their own banked credits, or pay penalties. (There are lower penalties for ships that achieve a \u201cbase\u201d compliance target of at least 8% in 2030, increasing to 30% in 2035.)<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

The GFI targets are not strong enough to reduce absolute GHG emissions in line with the <\/span>IMO\u2019s 2023 GHG Strategy<\/span><\/a> and it\u2019s uncertain how many ships will directly comply or pay to pollute. It\u2019s also unclear how the framework will reward the use of zero- or near-zero life-cycle GHG fuels. Nevertheless, IMO\u2019s Net Zero Framework will be one of the key levers for achieving <\/span>IMO\u2019s goal<\/span><\/a> of net-zero GHG emissions from maritime shipping \u201cby or around\u201d 2050 and a related goal for zero or near-zero GHG fuels to account for 5%\u201310% of energy use in international shipping by 2030. But without accurate accounting rules, nominally \u201cclean\u201d fuels used to comply with the framework could be substantial GHG emitters.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

To accurately estimate the GHG intensity of marine fuels, IMO could consider changes in four areas of its 2024 Life-Cycle Assessment <\/span>(LCA) Guidelines<\/span><\/a> before the IMO Net-Zero Framework is fully implemented in 2028.<\/span><\/p>\n

1. Account for indirect land-use change (ILUC) from biofuels<\/span><\/b>. The IMO\u2019s aviation counterpart, the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), includes quantitative ILUC emission factors in its policies. Other regulations, including FuelEU Maritime, limit or exclude food or feed-based biofuels. The Net-Zero Framework does neither.<\/span><\/p>\n

The most important factor influencing life-cycle GHG emissions of food and feed crops is ILUC, which occurs when incentives for biofuel production <\/span>divert food and feed crops <\/span><\/a>from existing uses to biofuel. Higher crop prices caused by biofuel incentives create economic pressure to bring more land into production, which can include deforestation. Even using crops grown on existing croplands that meet <\/span>IMO\u2019s sustainability criteria<\/span><\/a> can still create land use pressure given the global nature of markets.<\/span>\u00a0<\/p>\n

Counting only direct GHG emissions from a biofuel\u2019s life cycle gives an incomplete picture of its climate impact. For example, Figure 1 illustrates the life-cycle GHG emissions of hydroprocessed vegetable oils (HVO). Direct GHG emissions (shown in purple) are less than half those of fossil marine fuels. However, when ILUC emissions (blue) are included, the full life-cycle GHG emissions are accounted for. At best, palm or soy HVO provide little GHG benefit. At worst, they emit more than marine fossil fuel. Since HVO is the cheapest, most <\/span>commercially ready drop-in biofuel<\/span><\/a>, these fuels would be attractive under the Net-Zero Framework.<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_image src=”https:\/\/theicct.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/ID351-Fig01.png” title_text=”ID351 Fig01″ _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_image][et_pb_text admin_label=”Caption” _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”]\n

Figure.<\/strong>\u00a0Life-cycle GHG emissions for HVO compared with a fossil fuel comparator of 94 CO2e\/MJ (the ICCT\u2019s estimate of the GHG intensity of fossil marine fuels). ILUC values are from ICAO<\/a>, which refers to two ILUC models to develop its values; error bars show ILUC values from each of these models. Rapeseed and soybean oils are global ILUC numbers, while the palm oil ILUC number is for Malaysia\/Indonesia (no global number is available). Direct emissions are typical values from the European Union\u2019s Renewable Energy Directive.<\/p>\n[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” text_text_color=”#36424A” text_line_height=”1.8em” global_colors_info=”{}”]\n

If IMO\u2019s LCA Guidelines aren\u2019t amended to include ILUC emission factors, the calculated GHG emissions for food- and feed-based biofuels will be underestimated; that could substantially inflate their purported GHG emissions reductions. Without amendment, large volumes of food and feed biofuels could be used to meet GFI targets.<\/span><\/p>\n

2. Accurately account for methane emissions<\/span><\/b>. IMO\u2019s <\/span>LCA Guidelines<\/span><\/a> underestimate methane slip from LNG-fueled ships that use the most common LNG engine technology. Methane has a 100-year global warming potential (GWP) nearly 30 times higher than carbon dioxide (CO<\/span>2<\/span>); its 20-year GWP is more than 80 times higher. <\/span>Measurements of methane slip<\/span><\/a> from ships using the most common LNG engine (LPDF 4-stroke) averaged 6.4%, much higher than IMO\u2019s assumption of 3.5%. Real-world <\/span>measurements of other LNG engine technologies<\/span><\/a> are underway.<\/span><\/p>\n

Increasing IMO\u2019s default methane slip assumption for LPDF 4-stroke engines to at least 6% would result in life-cycle GHG emissions nearly 20% higher than conventional marine fuels for LPDF 4-stroke engines; continuing to use 3.5% methane slip results in LNG having GHG emissions that are about the same as conventional fuel. (Shipowners could get credit under the Net-Zero Framework for measuring and certifying lower methane emissions). IMO\u2019s LCA Guidelines lack a default emission factor for well-to-tank (upstream) emissions for fossil LNG, which <\/span>ranges between 18.5 and 28 g CO<\/span>2<\/span>e\/MJ<\/span><\/a>. That\u2019s 20%\u2013 30% of the life-cycle GHG intensity of heavy fuel oil. IMO will agree on a value as it amends the LCA guidelines prior to implementing the Net-Zero Framework.<\/span><\/p>\n

3. Account for nitrous oxide (N<\/span><\/b>2<\/span><\/b>O) emissions from ammonia<\/span><\/b>. <\/span>Renewable ammonia is emerging as a viable choice<\/span><\/a> for the maritime sector, but IMO\u2019s LCA Guidelines don\u2019t account for its N<\/span>2<\/span>O emissions. The GWP of N<\/span>2<\/span>O is nearly 300 times that of CO<\/span>2<\/span> (N<\/span>2<\/span>O\u2019s 100-year and 20-year GWPs are the same); therefore, even small amounts of emissions can negate the climate benefits of ammonia. Recent <\/span>ammonia dual-fuel engine experiments<\/span><\/a> show a wide range of N<\/span>2<\/span>O emissions. IMO\u2019s LCA Guidelines could include a default N<\/span>2<\/span>O emission factor for ammonia-fueled engines that\u2019s high enough to avoid underestimating their climate impacts. As <\/span>we recently suggested<\/span><\/a> in comments on the United Kingdom\u2019s plans to include shipping in its Emissions Trading Scheme, one option could be 0.0025 g N<\/span>2<\/span>O\/g fuel (equivalent to approximately 36 g CO<\/span>2<\/span>e\/MJ). That\u2019s based on the maximum N<\/span>2<\/span>O emissions observed in two separate peer-reviewed studies, as summarized in a <\/span>submission to MEPC 83<\/span><\/a>. Shipowners could then measure, report, and verify N<\/span>2<\/span>O emissions to use a lower value when calculating their GFI.<\/span><\/p>\n

4. Include black carbon<\/span><\/b>. Black carbon is the second-largest climate pollutant emitted by ships; it accounts for <\/span>8% of shipping\u2019s CO<\/span>2<\/span>e emissions<\/span><\/a> based on GWP100 and 23% based on GWP20. But it isn\u2019t considered in IMO\u2019s LCA Guidelines. Having already agreed to <\/span>guidelines to measure black carbon<\/span><\/a> and to <\/span>voluntary guidelines<\/span><\/a> to reduce black carbon in the Arctic, IMO is now considering mandatory measures to reduce black carbon. But a global regulation could be achieved by amending the LCA guidelines to include black carbon. Note that the European Commission is <\/span>considering including black carbon in the FuelEU Maritime framework<\/span><\/a> during its current review, which runs through 2027.<\/span><\/p>\n

The IMO has tasked an independent LCA expert group with recommending ways to improve the LCA Guidelines, including how to address ILUC and which default emission factors to use. The group will meet twice this year, and their recommendations will next be considered by MEPC 84 in 2026. We recommend the group consider the four changes we\u2019ve outlined. Addressing these issues in the LCA Guidelines before full implementation of the Net-Zero Framework in 2028 would substantially advance IMO\u2019s goals. Otherwise, we risk having a framework that promotes cheap-but-high-emitting fuels that could increase GHG emissions.\u00a0<\/span>\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column_inner][\/et_pb_row_inner][\/et_pb_column][et_pb_column type=”1_4″ _builder_version=”4.16″ custom_padding=”|||” global_colors_info=”{}” custom_padding__hover=”|||”][et_pb_text admin_label=”Title” module_id=”policedepartment” _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”680e9250-5983-47d2-b125-d1c0a97feb17″ text_text_color=”#007A94″ header_text_color=”#007A94″ custom_margin=”||||false|false” global_colors_info=”{}”]\n

Authors<\/strong><\/span><\/h6>\n[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text admin_label=”Author” _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” text_text_color=”#36424A” header_text_color=”#36424A” custom_margin=”||||false|false” custom_padding=”||14px||false|false” global_colors_info=”{}”]\"\"<\/strong><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Serkan \u00dcnalan<\/strong><\/span>
Associate Researcher<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text admin_label=”Author” _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” text_text_color=”#36424A” header_text_color=”#36424A” custom_margin=”||||false|false” custom_padding=”||14px||false|false” global_colors_info=”{}”]\n

\"\"<\/strong><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Chelsea Baldino<\/strong><\/span>
Program Lead<\/em><\/span><\/p>\n[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_divider color=”#36424A” divider_weight=”2px” _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” custom_margin=”||||false|false” custom_padding=”||||false|false” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_divider][et_pb_text admin_label=”Title” module_id=”policedepartment” _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”680e9250-5983-47d2-b125-d1c0a97feb17″ text_text_color=”#007A94″ header_text_color=”#007A94″ custom_margin=”-15px||||false|false” global_colors_info=”{}”]\n

Related Reading<\/strong><\/span><\/h6>\n[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_image src=”https:\/\/theicct.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/04\/ID-328-Vision-2050-Shipping-report-cover.png” title_text=”ID 328 Vision 2050 Shipping report cover” _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding=”|90px||||” border_color_all=”#737373″ global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_image][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding=”||71px|||” global_colors_info=”{}”]\n

Vision 2050: Fuel standards to align international shipping with the Paris Agreement<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

This report is a gap analysis, detailing the reduction in the global average GHG fuel intensity (GFI) and the operational efficiency improvements that would be necessary for the IMO to achieve its climate goals.<\/p>\n[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_divider color=”#36424A” divider_weight=”2px” _builder_version=”4.21.0″ _module_preset=”default” custom_margin=”-50px|||||” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_divider][et_pb_code admin_label=”blog post meta shortcode” _builder_version=”4.22.2″ _module_preset=”default” custom_margin=”-30px||||false|false” custom_margin_tablet=”||||false|false” custom_margin_phone=”||||false|false” custom_margin_last_edited=”on|phone” global_module=”27472″ global_colors_info=”{}”]