{"id":58361,"date":"2025-04-18T00:04:32","date_gmt":"2025-04-18T04:04:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/theicct.org\/?p=58361"},"modified":"2025-04-18T10:47:47","modified_gmt":"2025-04-18T14:47:47","slug":"aligning-colombias-fuel-efficiency-standards-with-zev-targets-to-meet-paris-climate-commitments-apr25","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/theicct.org\/aligning-colombias-fuel-efficiency-standards-with-zev-targets-to-meet-paris-climate-commitments-apr25\/","title":{"rendered":"Aligning Colombia\u2019s fuel efficiency standards with ZEV targets to meet Paris climate commitments"},"content":{"rendered":"[et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ specialty=”on” _builder_version=”4.22.1″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding=”0px|||||” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column type=”3_4″ specialty_columns=”3″ _builder_version=”4.16″ custom_padding=”|||” global_colors_info=”{}” custom_padding__hover=”|||”][et_pb_row_inner _builder_version=”4.22.1″ _module_preset=”default” custom_margin=”|||-80px|false|false” custom_margin_tablet=”|||0px|false|false” custom_margin_phone=”|||0px|false|false” custom_margin_last_edited=”on|phone” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_column_inner saved_specialty_column_type=”3_4″ _builder_version=”4.22.1″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” text_text_color=”#36424A” text_line_height=”1.8em” global_colors_info=”{}”]\n

In 2021, Colombia’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC)<\/span><\/a> under the Paris Agreement became legally binding with the passage of Law 2169<\/span><\/a>, which commits the country to reducing carbon dioxide (CO2<\/sub>) equivalent emissions by 51% from the projected baseline by 2030 and to achieving carbon neutrality by mid-century. Meeting these goals will require significant reductions in emissions from transportation, which currently accounts for nearly 40%<\/span><\/a> of Colombia\u2019s final energy consumption.<\/p>\n

Accelerated adoption of zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) and improved internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle efficiency are key levers to decarbonize<\/span><\/a> road transport. Here we\u2019ll unpack the findings of a recent global study<\/span><\/a> by the ICCT on the pace of the ZEV transition and highlight implications for Colombia\u2019s policies.<\/p>\n

We analyzed three scenarios for Colombia\u2019s road transport emissions. The Baseline scenario reflects current policies, including Colombia\u2019s 2019 legislation, Law 1972<\/span><\/a>, which mandates Euro VI-equivalent standards for new medium- and heavy-duty vehicles from 2023 onward, and Law 1964<\/span><\/a>, which requires all urban bus purchases to be ZEVs by 2035. The Momentum scenario incorporates Colombia\u2019s international commitments to the ZEV Declaration<\/span><\/a> (100% ZEV sales for light-duty vehicles by 2035) and the Global MOU on Zero-Emission Medium and Heavy-Duty Vehicles<\/span><\/a> (30% ZEV sales for buses and trucks by 2030, and 100% by 2040); fulfilling these commitments would also achieve Colombia\u2019s target of putting 600,000 electric vehicles on the road by 2030<\/span><\/a>. The Ambitious scenario is a Paris-aligned scenario for global ZEV uptake; in the case of Colombia, it extends the Momentum scenario by accelerating electrification of two- and three-wheelers, segments that have seen exponential growth in ICE vehicles in recent years<\/span><\/a>.<\/p>\n

The good news is that Colombia\u2019s ZEV ambitions for light- and heavy-duty vehicles are already Paris-aligned, as shown in the close alignment of the Momentum and Ambitious scenarios (Figure 1). However, projected ZEV uptake in the Baseline scenario, which reflects regulations currently in place, would fall far short of Colombia’s ZEV goals. This underscores the need for further policy action to close this \u201cregulatory gap\u201d and support fully achieving Colombia\u2019s ambitions.<\/p>\n[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” custom_margin=”||11px|||” global_colors_info=”{}”]Figure 1<\/strong>. Sales shares of ZEVs in Colombia by vehicle type in the Baseline, Momentum, and Ambitious scenarios, 2020\u20132050
\n[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_image src=”https:\/\/theicct.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/ID-329-Fig01.png” title_text=”ID 329 Fig01″ show_in_lightbox=”on” show_bottom_space=”off” _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_image][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” custom_margin=”||20px|||” global_colors_info=”{}”]Note: Shares in the Momentum and Ambitious scenarios are the same for all vehicle types except for two- and three-wheelers.<\/em>
\n[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” text_line_height=”1.8em” global_colors_info=”{}”]Figure 2 shows the implications of these ZEV trajectories for road transport CO2<\/sub> emissions in Colombia. In the Baseline scenario, tank-to-wheel emissions increase by nearly 70% over current levels by 2050. Cumulative CO2<\/sub> emissions through 2050 would reach 1,352 million tonnes (Mt) and put carbon neutrality by 2050 out of reach. The Momentum scenario could reduce CO2<\/sub> emissions by 80% in 2050 compared with the Baseline, and the Ambitious scenario would deliver an additional 21 Mt of cumulative CO2<\/sub> reductions by accelerating the electrification of two- and three-wheelers.
\n[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” custom_margin=”||14px|||” global_colors_info=”{}”]Figure 2<\/strong>. Road transport CO2<\/sub> mitigation potential of the Momentum and Ambitious scenarios in Colombia
\n[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_image src=”https:\/\/theicct.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/ID-329-Fig02.png” title_text=”ID 329 Fig02″ show_in_lightbox=”on” _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_image][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” text_line_height=”1.8em” global_colors_info=”{}”]\n

These projections further illustrate the \u201cregulatory gap\u201d between announced commitments and adopted policies. When considering the need for additional action to realize Colombia\u2019s climate ambitions, a critical missing element is supply-side regulations (SSRs)<\/span><\/a>. These are important policy tools<\/span><\/a> because they set the future direction of the market for all automakers and in doing so provide the confidence for investments in new technology and infrastructure. SSRs can take the form of fuel efficiency standards, CO2<\/sub> standards, or ZEV regulations. Of these three options, a ZEV regulation could be developed quickly<\/span><\/a> and would be easier to implement than fuel efficiency or CO2<\/sub> standards. However, ZEV regulations are not currently under discussion in Colombia, whereas fuel efficiency standards are actively being considered.<\/p>\n

Although fuel efficiency standards are more complicated to implement than a ZEV regulation, they could be designed<\/span><\/a> to meet Colombia’s ZEV targets while still providing an incentive for cost-effective ICE efficiency improvements. The European Union’s CO2<\/sub> standards for cars and vans<\/span><\/a> and heavy-duty vehicles<\/span><\/a> are examples of SSRs that are stringent enough to accelerate ZEV uptake while allowing automakers the flexibility to deploy ICE technologies to help meet the targets as they ramp up ZEV uptake. If Colombia adopts fuel efficiency standards, it\u2019s crucial to ensure these are stringent enough to meet its ZEV goals; setting weak standards that achieve only incremental ICE improvements or provide generous credits<\/span><\/a> for ZEVs would leave a substantial regulatory gap.<\/p>\n

Two-wheeler electrification represents an additional opportunity, as Colombia has not yet established targets for 100% ZEV sales as it has done for light- and heavy-duty vehicles. A ZEV regulation would be a logical choice for this rapidly growing segment as it could be electrified quickly if manufacturers offer competitively priced electric models.<\/p>\n

The Colombian government has established four strategic axes<\/span><\/a> for decarbonizing transportation: public policies, sustainable mobility and smart cities, reindustrialization of mobility, and multimodality. In addition to reducing emissions, implementing well-designed SSRs would also support Colombia\u2019s reindustrialization agenda by providing market confidence and driving investments in vehicle supply and charging infrastructure. With decisive policy action, Colombia could become a leader in transportation decarbonization in Latin America while realizing the economic, environmental, and public health benefits of a cleaner vehicle fleet.<\/p>\n[\/et_pb_text][\/et_pb_column_inner][\/et_pb_row_inner][\/et_pb_column][et_pb_column type=”1_4″ _builder_version=”4.16″ custom_padding=”|||” global_colors_info=”{}” custom_padding__hover=”|||”][et_pb_text admin_label=”Title” module_id=”policedepartment” _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”680e9250-5983-47d2-b125-d1c0a97feb17″ text_text_color=”#007A94″ header_text_color=”#007A94″ custom_margin=”||||false|false” global_colors_info=”{}”]\n

Authors<\/strong><\/span><\/h6>\n[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text admin_label=”Author” _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” text_text_color=”#36424A” header_text_color=”#36424A” custom_margin=”||||false|false” custom_padding=”||14px||false|false” global_colors_info=”{}”]\"\"<\/strong><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Oscar Delgado<\/strong><\/span>
\nHeavy-Duty Vehicles Program Director, Latin America and India<\/em><\/span>
\n[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text admin_label=”Author” _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” text_text_color=”#36424A” header_text_color=”#36424A” custom_margin=”||||false|false” custom_padding=”||14px||false|false” global_colors_info=”{}”]\"\"<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Jacob Teter<\/strong><\/span>
\n Consultant<\/em><\/span>
\n[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text admin_label=”Author” _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” text_text_color=”#36424A” header_text_color=”#36424A” custom_margin=”||||false|false” custom_padding=”||14px||false|false” global_colors_info=”{}”]\"\"<\/strong><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Josh Miller<\/strong><\/span>
\nDirector of Modeling, Monitoring, and Evaluation and Director of Program Services<\/em><\/span>
\n[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_text admin_label=”Author” _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” text_text_color=”#36424A” header_text_color=”#36424A” custom_margin=”||||false|false” custom_padding=”||14px||false|false” global_colors_info=”{}”]\"\"<\/strong><\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

Helmer Acevedo<\/strong><\/span>
\nResearch Consultant<\/em><\/span>
\n[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_divider color=”#36424A” divider_weight=”2px” _builder_version=”4.21.0″ _module_preset=”default” custom_margin=”-50px|||||” custom_padding=”23px|||||” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_divider][et_pb_text admin_label=”Title” module_id=”policedepartment” _builder_version=”4.22.1″ _module_preset=”680e9250-5983-47d2-b125-d1c0a97feb17″ text_text_color=”#007A94″ header_text_color=”#007A94″ custom_margin=”-15px||||false|false” global_colors_info=”{}”]\n

Related Publications<\/strong><\/span><\/h6>\n[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_image src=”https:\/\/theicct.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/03\/ID-260-Vision-2050-report-cover.png” title_text=”ID 260 Vision 2050 report cover” _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding=”|90px||||” border_color_all=”#737373″ global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_image][et_pb_text _builder_version=”4.27.4″ _module_preset=”default” custom_padding=”||71px|||” global_colors_info=”{}”]Vision 2050: Update on the global zero-emission vehicle transition in 2024<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

This study updates our annual assessment of global ZEV policies and market developments, analyzing their impact on projected vehicle sales, energy consumption, and emissions through 2050.
\n[\/et_pb_text][et_pb_divider color=”#36424A” divider_weight=”2px” _builder_version=”4.21.0″ _module_preset=”default” custom_margin=”-50px|||||” global_colors_info=”{}”][\/et_pb_divider][et_pb_code admin_label=”blog post meta shortcode” _builder_version=”4.22.2″ _module_preset=”default” custom_margin=”-30px||||false|false” custom_margin_tablet=”||||false|false” custom_margin_phone=”||||false|false” custom_margin_last_edited=”on|phone” global_module=”27472″ global_colors_info=”{}”]