Market monitors - International Council on Clean Transportation

European Heavy Duty Vehicle Market Development Quarterly (January – March 2025)

D'Errah Scott — Thu, 05 Jun 2025 22:30:06 +0000

Summary

The market for zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) took to a strong start in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025. While the overall market for HDVs fell by 20% compared with Q1 2024, sales of zero-emission HDVs rose to 4,100 vehicles, up 45% from the 2,800 vehicles sold in Q1 2024. Driving this was the growth in sales of light and medium trucks and, to a lesser extent, the bus and coach segments. The share of zero-emission vehicles among all light and medium trucks sold rose to an all-time high of 18% with 1,700 vehicles sold in Q1 2025; that was a doubling of both sales share and absolute sales from Q1 2024, when the sales share was 9% and 930 zero-emission vehicles were sold. Most of this increase was driven by sales in the Netherlands, where over 80% of light and medium trucks sold were electric.

Growth in the sales of zero-emission heavy trucks was less pronounced: The 850 vehicles sold were 1.5% of the market in Q1 2025, up marginally from 750 vehicles sold and a 1.0% sales share in Q1 2024. This was largely due to an increase in sales in France, where the sales share rose from 0.7% to 2.2% over the same period. Starting in July 2025, carbon dioxide reduction targets of 15% will apply to most new heavy trucks sold in the EU-27; it is possible that sales of zero-emission heavy trucks may increase in Q3 to comply. These targets will not apply to new light and medium trucks or to buses and coaches until 2030.

Overall market developments

In Q1 2025, the HDV market contracted fairly significantly to 75,000 vehicles sold, down from 95,000 in Q1 2024. This continued an overall downward trajectory seen since the start of 2024. Sales fell in all but four countries—Bulgaria, Greece, Lithuania, and Portugal—and the steepest drop was in sales of heavy trucks (23% decrease compared with the first quarter of 2024), followed by light and medium trucks (16% decrease), and buses and coaches (7% decrease).

Daimler Truck was hit the hardest by this market contraction, with sales down 34% in Q1 2025 relative to Q1 2024, and it was followed by Scania (28% decrease) and MAN (27% decrease). Only Renault Trucks, the smallest of Europe’s seven largest HDV manufacturers, saw an increase in its sales, which rose 2% compared with Q1 2024.

Despite these contractions, the market share of the major manufacturers remained mostly unchanged. Mercedes was the top seller in Q1 2025 (18% of all HDV sales) and was followed by Volvo and MAN (both 14%), Iveco (13%), Scania (12%), DAF (10%), and Renault (9%). Shares of manufacturers outside of the seven main manufacturers, which had been on an overall rise since the beginning of last year, fell to 13% in Q1 2025, down from 15% in Q4 2024.

Figure 1.1 Market share by country

Figure 1.2. Manufacturer market share by vehicle segment in Q1 2025, with parentheses denoting changes in shares in percentage points relative to Q1 2024

Heavy trucks

Trucks with a gross vehicle weight above 12 tonnes

In Q1 2025, heavy trucks accounted for 77% of all HDV sales. Out of 58,000 heavy trucks sold, 850 were zero-emission vehicles and that was a share of 1.5%. This marked a rise compared with the 1% share sold in Q1 2024, but no change compared with Q4 2024, which also had a 1.5% share. Volvo and Renault, the two brands of the Volvo Group, continued to dominate the zero-emission market by volume. They comprised a combined 57% share of all zero-emission heavy truck sales and MAN jumped to third place with a 15% sales share following the launch of its eTGX model, a tractor-trailer. Sales of zero-emission heavy trucks have yet to take off to the same extent for Mercedes, which has long been the largest HDV manufacturer in Europe by volume; it sold less than 100 of the European Union’s zero-emission heavy trucks (10% sales share, largely sales of its eActros) despite holding an 18% share of the conventional market.

Germany continued to lead in sales of zero-emission heavy trucks in Q1 2025: It held 35% of the market with 300 units sold. Just four countries (Germany, France, the Netherlands, and Sweden) were responsible for 85% of all zero-emission heavy trucks sales. Sweden had the highest sales share of zero-emission heavy trucks at 8.7% and was followed by the Netherlands at 6.0% and Denmark at 4.5%.

Click on the figures to take a closer look at the data

Figure 2.1. Sales of heavy trucks by powertrain in Q1 2025

Figure 2.2. Historic sales of zero-emission heavy trucks

Figure 2.3. Sales of zero-emission heavy trucks by configuration and powertrain in Q1 2025

Figure 2.4. Sales of zero-emission heavy trucks by share of Member State in Q1 2025

Figure 2.5. Shares of heavy trucks by powertrain and manufacturer in Q1 2025

Table 1. Sales of zero-emission heavy trucks in the EU-27, with sales shares in parentheses

Light and medium trucks

Trucks with a gross vehicle weight between 3.5 tonnes and 12 tonnes

In Q1 2025, light and medium trucks were 12% of all HDV sales. Of the 9,300 light and medium trucks sold, 1,700 (18%) were zero-emission. This marked a nearly twofold increase over Q1 2024, when 930 (8%) of the trucks sold were zero-emission. Ford continues to be the driving force behind the rise in the zero-emission sales and comprised nearly one-third of all sales in Q1 2025. Over 80% of all the vehicles manufactured by Ford for the European market were zero-emission, and most of these were its E-Transit model. Sales of the Mercedes eSprinter have also been on the rise and reached 290 vehicles in Q1 2025, up from 19 vehicles sold in Q1 2024.

Sales of zero-emission light and medium trucks in the Netherlands rose rapidly in Q1 2025, with 510 zero-emission vehicles sold; that was 83% of all light and medium trucks sold and nearly three times higher than the total sold in all of 2024. The rise is likely driven by the introduction of zero-emission zones that have applied in 15 municipalities since the start of 2025. All new vans and trucks registered from the start of 2025 entering these zones must be zero-emission. Sales in most other countries remained stagnant, except in Italy, where the share for zero-emission vehicles reached 17% in Q1 2025, up from 6% in Q1 2024. The Netherlands had the highest sales share of zero-emission light and medium trucks and was followed by Denmark (54%) and Sweden (45%)

Click on the figures to take a closer look at the data

Figure 3.1. Sales of light and medium trucks by powertrain in Q1 2025

Figure 3.2. Historic sales of zero-emission light and medium trucks

Figure 3.3. Sales of zero-emission light and medium trucks by configuration and powertrain in Q1 2025

Figure 3.4. Sales of zero-emission light and medium commercial vehicles by Member State in Q1 2025

Figure 3.5. Shares of light and medium trucks by powertrain and manufacturer in Q1 2025

Table 2. Sales of zero-emission light and medium trucks in EU-27 countries, with sales shares in parentheses

Buses and coaches

With a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tonnes

Buses and coaches were 11% of all HDV sales in Q1 2025. Of the 8,300 buses sold, 1,600 were zero-emission vehicles, 19% of total sales; that was up from the 1,100 sales, a 12% share, in Q1 2024. Battery electric city buses were 46% of all city bus registrations in Q1 2025, a slight drop from 52% in Q1 2024 but still above the share of diesel city buses sold.

Mercedes remained the top-selling manufacturer of zero-emission buses and coaches by selling 310 units of its eCitaro and eSprinter models; that was 19% of all sales. MAN jumped into a close second place with an 18% market share that was achieved exclusively through sales of its MAN Lions City model.
Shares of zero-emission buses and coaches have been rising across all Member States and were the highest in Sweden (67%), Romania (55%), and the Netherlands (54%). For city buses, only zero-emission sales were recorded in Q1 2025 in Romania, Latvia, Hungary, and Denmark, and the sales share was above 50% in Poland, Greece, the Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden, Lithuania, and Luxembourg.

Click on the figures to take a closer look at the data

Figure 4.1. Sales of city buses (top) and interurban buses and coaches (bottom) by powertrain in Q1 2025

Figure 4.2. Historic sales of zero-emission buses and coaches

Figure 4.3. Sales of city buses by Member State and powertrain

Figure 4.4. Sales of city buses by powertrain and Member State in Q1 2025

Figure 4.3. Shares of all buses and coaches by powertrain and manufacturer in Q1 2025

Table 3. Sales of zero-emission buses and coaches in
EU-27 countries, with sales shares in parentheses

Definitions, data sources, methodology, and assumptions

A zero-emission vehicle is any vehicle whose propulsion system produces zero combustion emissions, such as a dedicated battery electric, fuel cell-electric, or other motor that is not driven by combustion.

A heavy-duty vehicle is a commercial vehicle, intended for the transport of passengers or freight, with a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tonnes.

A heavy truck is a truck with a gross vehicle weight above 12 tonnes.

A light and medium commercial vehicle is a truck or van with a gross vehicle weight between 3.5 and 12 tonnes.

A city bus is a passenger vehicle with a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tonnes that is used exclusively in urban environments.

An interurban bus is a passenger vehicle with a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tonnes that is used in both urban and regional environments.

A coach is a passenger vehicle with a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tonnes that is used exclusively in regional environments.

All data are supplied by Dataforce.

The post European Heavy Duty Vehicle Market Development Quarterly (January – March 2025) appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

European Market Monitor: Cars and vans (April 2025)

D'Errah Scott — Wed, 28 May 2025 08:35:23 +0000

Passenger car registrations

The average share of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) among total new registrations in Europe increased 1 percentage point to 17% in April 2025, up from 16% in March. While several manufacturer pools had decreases in BEV shares of 1 or 2 percentage points in April compared with the previous month, including the BMW, Mercedes-Volvo-Polestar, Hyundai, Tesla-Stellantis-Toyota, and Renault pools, other pools increased their shares. The 19% BEV share of the Volkswagen pool was a notable jump of 7 percentage points over its 2024 average. The BMW pool had the highest BEV share in April (24%) and was followed by Mercedes-Volvo-Polestar (22%) and Kia (21%). The Hyundai pool (16% BEV share) was below the European average, as were SAIC (13%), the Tesla-Stellantis-Toyota pool (12%), the Renault pool (11%), and Nissan (9%). Shares of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) among new registrations in Europe increased slightly to 9% in April (from 8% in March 2025), and the Mercedes-Volvo-Polestar pool led with a 24% PHEV share. Nissan had the largest share of full hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) in April (40%) and the BMW and Mercedes-Volvo-Polestar pools led in new registration shares of mild hybrid electric vehicles (MHEVs) at 39% and 38%, respectively.

Figure 1. Share of battery electric in new passenger car registrations in Europe

Figure 2. Average CO₂ emissions of manufacturer pools and individual manufacturers compared with estimated 2025-2027 targets, 2025 YTD

Note: Includes compliance credits. All CO₂ values are estimates according to the Worldwide harmonized Light vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP). Only manufacturer pools and individual manufacturers with at least 1% market share YTD are shown. See the section on definitions, data sources, methodology, and assumptions for more.

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions among manufacturer pools averaged 102 g CO₂/km in April 2025. As a result, manufacturing pools are 9 g CO₂/km from the average target of 93 g CO₂/km for the 2025–2027 period. The Volkswagen pool reduced its target gap by 2 g CO₂/km compared with the previous month. The BMW pool is currently in compliance with its 2025–2027 target, and Nissan (29 g CO₂/km above) is the farthest from reaching its target.

Looking at individual car brands with market shares of 1% or greater, apart from Tesla, Volvo had the greatest over-compliance at 27 g CO₂/km below its projected brand-level average target for 2025–2027, and it was followed by Cupra (17 g CO₂/km below target). Mazda and Nissan currently have the largest target gaps at 29 CO₂/km each. While Audi’s target gap remains sizable at 28 CO₂/km, that is a 2 g CO₂/km reduction from the previous month, and Ford (25 CO₂/km) and Mercedes-Benz (23 CO₂/km) also reduced their target gaps by 1 CO₂/km each.

Table 1. Share of battery electric, plug-in hybrid, full hybrid, and mild hybrid passenger cars by manufacturer pool or large manufacturer not forming a pool

Table 2. Fleet-average CO2 emissions of new passenger cars and market share by manufacturer pool or large manufacturer not forming a pool

Table 3. Fleet-average CO2 emissions of new passenger cars and market share by manufacturer group and brand

Passenger car registrations by country

Looking at the major European markets, total passenger car registrations in France, Belgium, and the Netherlands fell 6%, 5%, and 4%, respectively, in April 2025 compared with April 2024, and Italy surpassed France in market size. New registrations increased 16% in Austria, 10% in Sweden, and 9% in Czechia compared with April 2024. Combined BEV and PHEV market shares held steady at 24% in Europe YTD in 2025. Norway (96%), Denmark (68%), Sweden (59%), and the Netherlands (53%) all had combined shares above 50%, and Belgium (41%), Austria (30%), and Germany (27%) also recorded combined BEV and PHEV market shares above the average for Europe. Among the largest markets, the highest increase in BEV registrations occurred in Italy, Czechia, and Poland, where registrations increased 110%, 109%, and 103%, respectively, in April 2025 compared with April 2024; registrations in France and the Netherlands remained similar to April 2024. In Germany, BEV registrations continue to rise, with over 45,500 BEVs registered in April, a market share of 19%. As Europe’s largest market, Germany’s 54% increase in total BEVs registered over April 2024 is noteworthy. Registrations of PHEVs increased the most in Poland (+125%) in April 2025 compared with April 2024 and HEV registrations increased the most in Austria (+79%). Shares of MHEVs were the highest in Italy (31%) and Poland (29%) in April, and they are gaining popularity in Sweden, Austria, and France, where registrations increased 55%, 51%, and 50%, respectively, in April 2025 compared with April 2024.
Figure 3. Share of plug-in hybrid and battery electric passenger cars by country, including information on market size (total new car registrations)

Note: “Other” includes EEA countries not individually highlighted in the figure, except for Bulgaria, Liechtenstein, and Malta.

Table 4. New passenger car registrations by country

Table 5. New battery electric, plug-in hybrid, hybrid, and mild hybrid passenger car registrations by country

Table 6. Share of new battery electric, plug-in hybrid, full hybrid, and mild hybrid passenger cars by country

PASSENGER CAR REGISTRATIONS BY OWNER

Private cars made up over 40% of new registrations in Europe in 2024, and these were followed by company fleets with 36%, and then car dealers and manufacturers and short-term rentals, which made up 14% and 9% of the total registrations, respectively. Short-term rental registrations fluctuated more than other owner types; they ranged from nearly 13% of sales in May 2024 to only 5% in October 2024. In March 2025, the split of new registrations by owner type largely mirrored that of March 2024.

Figure 4 New passenger car registrations by owner for 19 select European countries

Spotlight: Spain

In Spain, registrations of new BEVs and PHEVs are showing strong growth in 2025, with YTD sales up 55% compared with the same period in 2024. Total new passenger car registrations YTD increased by 13% over the same period in 2024. This growth is partly driven by a surge in vehicle sales in the Valencian Community, backed by the Spanish government’s Plan Reinicia Auto+; this is a recovery initiative launched in response to the DANA weather event of October 2024, which caused the loss of approximately 120,000 vehicles. The plan provides subsidies of up to €10,000 for new BEVs and PHEVs purchased to replace insured vehicles written off due to DANA. Meanwhile, subsidies for other Euro 6-compliant powertrain types are limited to half that amount. As of March 2025, about 14% of subsidy requests were for BEVs and PHEVs, while HEVs accounted for 40%. The Valencian Community has seen a 141% YTD increase in new BEV registrations compared with the same period in 2024; this is the second-highest growth among Spain’s autonomous regions and the strongest among the country’s largest regional markets. Registrations of PHEVs rose even more sharply, with a 160% increase YTD over the same period in 2024, the highest of all of Spain’s autonomous regions.

Moreover, in April 2025, the Spanish government reactivated the MOVES III program, an incentive scheme aimed at promoting the purchase of new zero- and low-emission vehicles and the installation of private and publicly accessible electric vehicle chargers. Originally launched in 2021, the program was extended (with retroactive effect from January 1) and will remain in force either until the end of 2025 or until the allocated €400 million in funding is exhausted. Incentives for the purchase of new electric vehicles with an electric range exceeding 90 km are €4,500 per vehicle, and that rises to €7,000 if a vehicle older than 7 years is scrapped as part of the transaction. For the installation of chargers, private individuals are eligible to receive 70%–80% of the installation costs.

Figure 5. Share of battery electric and plug-in hybrid electric in new passenger car registrations in Spain

Definitions, data sources, methodology, and assumptions

Manufacturer pools: Automakers are allowed to form pools to jointly comply with CO2 targets. For this publication, the 2025 pools listed in the European Commission’s “M1 pooling list”, version of 15 March 2025, is used. 2024 closed pools from this list have been carried over into 2025, even in the absence of a 2025 formal declaration, as they typically remain stable due to ongoing commercial affiliations (e.g., the BMW, Hyundai, and Kia pools). In contrast, only open pools that have been confirmed for 2025 are included, as their composition tends to change more frequently than closed pools. Additionally, it is assumed that the Renault Group forms a closed passenger car pool in 2025 with its affiliated manufacturers. The main brands are: BMW pool (BMW, Mini), Hyundai pool (Hyundai), Kia pool (Kia), Mercedes-Volvo-Polestar pool (Mercedes-Benz, Polestar, Smart, Volvo), Renault pool (Dacia, Renault), Tesla-Stellantis-Toyota pool (Citroën, Fiat, Ford, Jeep, Mazda, Opel, Peugeot, Suzuki, Tesla, Toyota), Volkswagen (Audi, Cupra, Porsche, SEAT, Škoda, VW). Nissan and SAIC are large passenger car manufacturers not part of a pool.

Abbreviations: AC = alternating current; CO2 = carbon dioxide emissions; DC = direct current; g/km = grams per kilometer; YTD = year-to-date; ZLEV = zero- and low-emission vehicle.

Technical scope: This publication focuses on new passenger car registrations. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are powered exclusively by an electric motor, with no additional source of propulsion. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) combine a conventional combustion engine with an electric propulsion system that can be recharged via an external power source. Hybrid electric vehicles here include full hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and mild hybrid electric vehicles (MHEVs). HEVs and MHEVs integrate two propulsion systems, usually a combustion engine and an electric propulsion system that cannot be recharged via an external power source. Key differences between HEVs and MHEVs are the system voltage and system power. This enables HEVs to drive partially pure electric, while the electric propulsion system of MHEVs is typically only capable of assisting the combustion engine. For more on HEVs and MHEVs see: Jan Dornoff et al., Mild-Hybrid Vehicles: A Near Term Technology Trend for CO2 Emissions Reduction (International Council on Clean Transportation, 2022), https://theicct.org/publication/mild-hybrid-emissions-jul22/.

Geographic scope: The European CO2 regulation for vehicle manufacturers applies to all countries of the European Economic Area (EEA). This includes the 27 Member States of the European Union plus Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway. Data for new car registrations and shares of electric vehicles in this publication cover all of these countries, with the exception of Cyprus, Liechtenstein and Malta. Data for CO2 emission levels additionally omits Bulgaria and Romania.

Data sources: Dataforce (new vehicle registrations), European Environment Agency (vehicle mass and eco-innovation credits). Historical values are regularly updated to reflect all latest data available.

Results may change over time: Registrations and/or CO2 data may be retrospectively updated by some of the national type-approval authorities.

Test procedures: CO2 values are provided according to the Worldwide harmonized Light vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP).

Flexible compliance mechanisms: To facilitate meeting their CO2 targets, manufacturers can make use of a number of compliance mechanisms: (1) Manufacturers can reduce their CO2 level by up to 6 g/km by deploying eco-innovation technologies. As a conservative estimate, we apply the 2023 level of eco-innovation CO2 emission reductions per brand. For more on the methodology used, see: Uwe Tietge, Peter Mock, and Jan Dornoff, Overview and Evaluation of Eco-Innovations in European Passenger Car CO2 Standards (International Council on Clean Transportation, 2018), https://theicct.org/publications/eco-innovations-european-passenger-car-co2-standards; (2) If a manufacturer’s ZLEV share exceeds 25% (cars) or 17% (vans), its CO2 target is increased by the same number of percentage points, up to a maximum of 5%. This adjustment is referred to as the ZLEV factor, while the target before adjustment is called the manufacturer reference target. The manufacturer target is calculated by multiplying the reference target by the ZLEV factor. ZLEVs are BEVs and vehicles with CO2 emissions of 50 g/km (WLTP) or less. For details on the ZLEV factor mechanism, see: Jan Dornoff, CO2 emission standards for new passenger cars and vans in the European Union (International Council on Clean Transportation, 2023), https://theicct.org/publication/eu-co2-standards-cars-vans-may23/.

Mass-based targets: For each manufacturer or manufacturer pool, a specific 2025 CO2 target value applies, depending on the average WLTP test mass of the new vehicles registered. For this publication, we assume the average WLTP test mass per manufacturer pool remains the same as in 2023; the average 2023 BEV and non-BEV test mass for each manufacturer was calculated based on EEA data and then weighted according to their year-to-date 2025 BEV market shares. For more on the methodology used, see: Uwe Tietge, Jan Dornoff, and Peter Mock, CO2 Emissions From New Passenger Cars in Europe: Car Manufacturers’ Performance in 2023 (International Council Clean Transportation, 2024), https://theicct.org/publication/co2-emissions-new-pv-europe-car-manufacturers-performance-2023-sept24/.

2025-2027 averaging: Rather than being required to meet the CO2 target applying from 2025 onwards in each individual year, manufacturers are granted the flexibility to comply based on their average CO2 emissions over the three-year period 2025-2027. This means that manufacturers may exceed their CO2 targets in one or more years, provided that any excess emissions are balanced out by equivalent over-compliance in other years within the averaging period. For more details on the provision, see ICCT, Public comments on the European Commission proposal to introduce a 3-year “averaging” provision for the CO2 standards regulation for new cars and vans (International Council on Clean Transportation, 2025), https://theicct.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/PublicComments-Averaging-final-27March.pdf.

Owner types: This publication considers four types of owners: private cars, company fleets, short-term rentals, and car dealers and manufacturers. The private car category includes all registrations under private individuals, including those of self-employed persons, provided the vehicles are not registered under a company name. Private leasing is also included. Company fleets encompass all vehicles registered to companies, excluding those intended for resale or rental. This category includes company and public administration fleets, commercial long-term rentals, commercial leases, taxis, driving schools, diplomats, etc. The size of the fleet and the extent to which the vehicles are used privately are not considered relevant. The short-term rentals type covers all registrations under large or small national and local rental companies. It also covers all vehicles flagged by authorities as being used for self-drive rental purposes. The car dealers and manufacturers type includes all vehicles registered by car dealers and manufacturers. For automakers, this includes vehicles used for press purposes as well as those for their employees. New registrations data by owner type is aggregated for the following 19 European countries: Austria, Belgium, Czechia, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and United Kingdom.

This publication is a collaboration between the ICCT, IMT-IDDRI, and ECCO think tank.

The post European Market Monitor: Cars and vans (April 2025) appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

Monitor del mercado de autobuses eléctricos en América Latina

D'Errah Scott — Tue, 20 May 2025 15:13:05 +0000

La flota de autobuses eléctricos en América Latina alcanzó los 6.055 vehículos al cierre de 2024, lo que representa un aumento del 13% en comparación con el año anterior. La flota creció sustancialmente desde 2017—cuando constaba de apenas 801 vehículos, casi todos trolebuses—con una tasa de crecimiento promedio del 33,5% anual. Este crecimiento fue impulsado inicialmente por la incorporación de autobuses eléctricos a batería (BEB, por sus siglas en inglés) en Chile y Colombia, seguidos por Brasil y México. La flota de trolebuses, concentrada principalmente en Brasil y México, mostró una expansión más limitada, aunque todavía representó el 17% del total de autobuses eléctricos en América Latina en 2024.

Mayores flotas, por ciudad

Los autobuses eléctricos en América Latina están concentrados en unas pocas ciudades. Santiago y Bogotá representan más del 65% de la flota eléctrica en operación en la región. Aproximadamente el 72% de los BEB adquiridos en 2024 operan en Santiago (34%), São Paulo (30%) y Ciudad de México (8%).

Los trolebuses representan el 100% de la flota de autobuses eléctricos en Quito, el 73% en Ciudad de México y el 44% en São Paulo. En cambio, Santiago y Bogotá cuentan exclusivamente con BEB en operación.

Figure 2. Flota de autobuses eléctricos por ciudad, 2024

Emisiones del ciclo de vida

Los autobuses con motor de combustión interna (ICEB) generan, en promedio, el doble de emisiones de gases de efecto invernadero (GEI) a lo largo de su ciclo de vida que los trolebuses, y entre 3 y 4 veces más que los BEB.
Las características de cada país influyen en las emisiones por vehículo, especialmente en el caso de los autobuses eléctricos: los BEB que operan en México y Chile emiten entre 1,2 a 2 veces más que vehículos equivalentes en Colombia o Brasil, debido a las diferentes intensidades de carbono de las redes eléctricas en estos países.

Considerando el tamaño de autobús más frecuente en América Latina (12–15 m), los BEB en Colombia y Brasil emiten un 78,3% y un 77,2% menos de GEI que los ICEB, respectivamente. En México, la reducción de emisiones en comparación con los autobuses ICE es similar para los BEB (65,7%) y los trolebuses (62,6%); en Chile, por otro lado, los BEB emiten un 68,8% menos que los autobuses ICE, mientras que los trolebuses logran una reducción más modesta, del 25,5%. En promedio, en el resto de los países, los BEB generan un 70,7% menos emisiones que los autobuses ICE.

Figure 3. Comparación de las emisiones del ciclo de vida de autobuses de 12–15 m, por país

Fabricantes de autobuses eléctricos por país

De 2018 a 2024, BYD fue el mayor proveedor de autobuses eléctricos en América Latina, con 2.606 unidades vendidas—43,7% de la flota regional— principalmente en Colombia y Chile. Le siguieron Foton, con 1.404 autobuses vendidos casi exclusivamente en Chile, y Yutong, con 890 unidades concentradas principalmente en México y Chile. La empresa brasileña Eletra comercializó 477 vehículos, entre BEB y trolebuses, todos en Brasil.

KingLong (72 unidades), Zhongtong (70), Sunwin (64) y Mercedes-Benz (62) completan el grupo de los ocho principales proveedores de autobuses eléctricos en la región durante este período. Otros fabricantes representaron 472 autobuses eléctricos, equivalentes al 7,8% de la flota total.

De los 6.055 autobuses eléctricos incorporados en la región desde 2018, 5.147 vehículos—equivalentes al 85% de la flota—fueron suministrados por fabricantes chinos. Los fabricantes latinoamericanos Eletra, Marcopolo (Brasil) y DINA (México) aportaron un total de 545 vehículos, o el 9% de la flota. Por su parte, los fabricantes europeos, en conjunto, suministraron 114 autobuses, lo que representa el 1,9% de la flota.

Figure 4. Distribución de los autobuses eléctricos en América Latina adquiridos desde 2018 por fabricante (a la izquierda), país (en el centro) y tipo de autobús (a la derecha)

Definiciones y fuentes de datos

Los datos presentados se obtuvieron del E-BUS RADAR (ebusradar.org), una plataforma mantenida por la alianza Zero Emission Bus Rapid-deployment Accelerator (ZEBRA), con el apoyo del Instituto Clima e Sociedade. En diciembre de 2024, E-BUS RADAR había mapeado más de 6.000 autobuses eléctricos en América Latina, abarcando 12 países y 55 ciudades.

Los métodos utilizados para calcular las emisiones del ciclo de vida se presentan en Ana Beatriz Rebouças y André Cieplinski, Cuantificando las emisiones evitadas de gases de efecto invernadero por e-bus en América Latina: Una metodología simplificada de evaluación del ciclo de vida (International Council on Clean Transportation, 2024), https://theicct.org/publication/es-quantifying-avoided-ghg-emissions-by-e-buses-in-latin-america-a-simplified-life-cycle-assessment-methodology-aug24/.

Autobuses eléctricos incluyen tanto los autobuses eléctricos a batería como los trolebuses.

Autobuses eléctricos a batería son aquellos movidos por uno o más motores eléctricos, con paquetes de baterías a bordo.

Trolebuses son autobuses eléctricos movidos por uno o más motores eléctricos que reciben energía mediante un sistema de cableado aéreo; pueden o no contar con baterías a bordo.

Autobuses con motor de combustión interna son vehículos propulsados por un motor de combustión alimentado con diésel o gas natural comprimido.

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Monitoramento do mercado de ônibus elétricos na América Latina (2024)

D'Errah Scott — Tue, 20 May 2025 14:57:45 +0000

A frota de ônibus elétricos (e-bus) da América Latina atingiu 6.055 veículos ao final de 2024, um aumento de 13% em relação ao ano anterior. A frota cresceu substancialmente desde 2017—quando era composta por apenas 801 veículos, quase todos trólebus—com uma taxa média de crescimento de 33,5% ao ano. Esse crescimento foi inicialmente impulsionado pela introdução de ônibus elétricos a bateria (BEBs) no Chile e na Colômbia, seguidos por Brasil e México. A frota de trólebus, concentrada no Brasil e no México, se expandiu de maneira mais limitada, mas ainda representava 17% de todos os ônibus elétricos na América Latina em 2024.

Maiores frotas, por cidade

Os ônibus elétricos na América Latina se concentram em poucas cidades. Santiago e Bogotá correspondem a mais de 65% da frota de ônibus elétricos em operação na região.

Aproximadamente 72% dos BEBs adquiridos em 2024 operam em Santiago (34%), São Paulo (30%) e Cidade do México (8%). Os trólebus representam 100% da frota de ônibus elétricos no Quito, 73% na Cidade do México e 44% em São Paulo. Santiago e Bogotá apresentam apenas BEBs em operação.

Figure 2. Frotas de ônibus elétricos por cidade, 2024

Emissões de ciclo de vida

Ônibus movidos à combustão interna (ICEBs) produzem, em média, 2 vezes mais emissões de gases de efeito estufa (GHG) ao longo do ciclo de vida do que os trólebus, e 3-4 vezes mais do que os BEBs. As emissões por veículo são influenciadas pelas particularidades de cada país, especialmente no caso de ônibus elétricos: BEBs operando no México e no Chile emitem de 1,2 a 2 vezes mais do que veículos equivalentes na Colômbia ou no Brasil, devido às diferentes intensidades de carbono das redes elétricas nesses países.

Considerando o tamanho de ônibus mais frequente na América Latina (12–15 m), BEBs na Colômbia e no Brasil emitem 78,3% e 77,2% menos GHG do que os ICEBs, respectivamente. No México, as reduções de emissões em relação aos ônibus ICE são comparáveis para os BEBs (-65,7%) e para os trólebus (-62,6%); no Chile, por outro lado, os BEBs emitem 68,8% menos do que os ônibus ICE, enquanto os trólebus alcançam uma redução mais modesta de 25,5%. Em média, nos demais países, os BEBs emitem 70,7% menos do que os ônibus ICE.

Figure 3. Comparação das emissões do ciclo de vida de ônibus de 12–15 m, por país

Fornecedores de ônibus elétricos por país

De 2018 a 2024, a BYD foi o maior fornecedor de e-bus para a América Latina, com 2.606 ônibus—43,7% da frota regional—vendidos predominantemente na Colômbia e no Chile. Em seguida ficou a Foton, com 1.404 ônibus vendidos quase exclusivamente no Chile, e a Yutong, cujos 890 ônibus se concentraram principalmente no México e no Chile.

A empresa brasileira Eletra vendeu 477 BEB e trolebus durante o período, todos no Brasil. KingLong (72 e-bus), Zhongtong (70), Sunwin (64) e Mercedes-Benz (62) completaram o grupo dos oito principais fornecedores para a região entre 2018 e 2024. Outros fabricantes foram responsáveis por 472 ônibus elétricos, ou 7,8% da frota.

Dos 6.055 e-bus na região desde 2018, 5.147 veículos—85% da frota—foram fornecidos por fabricantes chineses. Os fabricantes latino-americanos Eletra, Marcopolo (Brasil) e DINA (México) foram responsáveis por 545 veículos, ou 9% da frota. Fabricantes europeus, em conjunto, forneceram 114 ônibus, ou 1,9% da frota.

Figure 4. Distribuição dos ônibus elétricos da América Latina adquiridos desde 2018 por fabricante (à esquerda), país (ao centro) e tipo de ônibus (à direita)

Definições e fontes de dados

Os dados foram adquiridos a partir do E-BUS RADAR (ebusradar.org), mantido pela parceria Zero Emission Bus Rapid-deployment Accelerator (ZEBRA) com o apoio do Instituto Clima e Sociedade. Em dezembro de 2024, o E-BUS RADAR mapeou mais de 6.000 e-bus na América Latina, abrangendo 12 países e 55 cidades.

Os métodos para calcular as emissões do ciclo de vida estão apresentados em Ana Beatriz Rebouças e André Cieplinski, Quantificação das emissões de gases de efeito estufa evitadas por ônibus elétricos na América Latina: uma metodologia simplificada de avaliação do ciclo de vida (International Council on Clean Transportation, 2024), https://theicct.org/publication/pt-quantifying-avoided-ghg-emissions-by-e-buses-in-latin-america-aug24/.

Ônibus elétricos incluem tanto os ônibus elétricos a bateria quanto os trólebus.

Ônibus elétricos à bateria são aqueles movidos por motor(es) elétrico(s) com pacotes de baterias a bordo.

Trólebus são ônibus elétricos movidos por motor(es) elétrico(s) com energia obtida por meio de um cabo aéreo; podem ou não ter pacotes de baterias a bordo.

Ônibus movidos à combustão interna são movidos por um motor de combustão alimentado por diesel ou gás natural comprimido.

The post Monitoramento do mercado de ônibus elétricos na América Latina (2024) appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

Latin America e-bus market monitor (2024)

D'Errah Scott — Tue, 20 May 2025 14:40:46 +0000

Latin America’s electric bus (e-bus) fleet reached 6,055 vehicles at the end of 2024, an increase of 13% from the year prior. The fleet has grown substantially since 2017—when it comprised just 801 vehicles, nearly all trolleybuses—and the average growth rate has been 33.5% per year. This growth was initially boosted by the introduction of battery electric buses (BEBs) in Chile and Colombia, followed by Brazil and Mexico. The trolleybus fleet, concentrated in Brazil and Mexico, has had a more limited expansion, but still was 17% of all e-buses in Latin America in 2024.

Figure 1. Evolution of Latin America’s e-bus fleet by year and country, 2017–2024

Major E-bus cities

E-buses in Latin America are concentrated in a few cities. Santiago and Bogotá account for over 65% of the region’s e-bus fleet. Approximately 72% of new BEBs added in 2024 were deployed in Santiago (34%), São Paulo (30%), and Mexico City (8%). Trolleybuses represent 100% of the e-bus fleet in Quito, 73% in Mexico City, and 44% in São Paulo. Santiago and Bogotá have only BEBs in operation.

Figure 2. E-bus fleet by city, 2024

Life-cycle emissions

Internal combustion engine buses (ICEBs) produce, on average, 2 times more greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions than trolleybuses and 3–4 times more than BEBs.

Country characteristics influence emissions per vehicle, especially for electric buses: BEBs operating in Mexico and Chile emit 1.2–2 times more than equivalent vehicles in Colombia or Brazil due to different carbon intensities of the electric grids in these countries.

Considering the most common bus size in Latin America (12–15 m), BEBs in Colombia and Brazil emit 78.3% and 77.2% less GHG than ICEBs, respectively. In Mexico, emission reductions relative to ICEBs are comparable for BEBs (65.7%) and trolleybuses (62.6%); in Chile, by contrast, BEBs emit 68.8% less than ICEBs while trolleybuses achieve a more modest reduction of 25.5%. On average, in all other countries, BEBs emit 70.7% less than ICEBs.

Figure 3. Comparison of life-cycle emissions of 12–15m buses, by country

E-bus manufacturers by country

From 2018 through 2024, BYD was the largest supplier of e-buses to Latin America, with 2,606 buses—43.7% of the regional fleet—sold mostly in Colombia and Chile. This was followed by Foton, with 1,404 buses sold almost exclusively in Chile, and Yutong, whose 890 buses were concentrated mainly in Mexico and Chile. Brazilian company Eletra sold 477 BEBs and trolleybuses over the period, all in Brazil.

KingLong (72 e-buses), Zhongtong (70), Sunwin (64), and Mercedes-Benz (62) rounded out the top eight suppliers to the region between 2018 and 2024. Other manufacturers were responsible for 472 e-buses, or 7.8% of the fleet.

Of the 6,055 e-buses deployed in the region since 2018, 5,147 vehicles—85% of the fleet—were supplied by Chinese manufacturers. Latin American manufacturers Eletra, Marcopolo (Brazil), and DINA (Mexico) were responsible for 545 vehicles, or 9% of the fleet. European manufacturers combined supplied 114 buses, or 1.9% of the fleet.

Figure 4. Distribution of Latin America’s e-buses acquired since 2018 by manufacturer (left), country (center), and bus type (right)

Definitions and data sources

Data were retrieved from E-BUS RADAR (ebusradar.org), which is maintained by the Zero Emission Bus Rapid-deployment Accelerator (ZEBRA) partnership with support from Instituto Clima e Sociedade. As of December 2024, E-BUS RADAR had mapped over 6,000 e-buses in Latin America, covering 12 countries and 55 cities.

The methods to calculate life-cycle emissions are presented in Ana Beatriz Rebouças and André Cieplinski, Quantifying avoided greenhouse gas emissions by e-buses in Latin America: A simplified life-cycle assessment methodology (International Council on Clean Transportation, 2024), https://theicct.org/ publication/quantifying-avoided-ghg-emissions-by-e-buses-in-latin-america-a-simplified-life-cycle-assessment-methodology-aug24/.

Electric buses include both battery electric buses and trolleybuses.

Battery electric buses are electric buses propelled by electric motor(s) with on-board battery packs.

Trolleybuses are electric buses propelled by electric motor(s) with energy obtained from an overhead cable; they may or may not have on-board battery packs.

Internal combustion engine buses are propelled by a combustion engine fueled by diesel or compressed natural gas.

The post Latin America e-bus market monitor (2024) appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

European Market Monitor: Cars and vans (March 2025)

D'Errah Scott — Wed, 30 Apr 2025 07:09:13 +0000

Passenger car registrations

The average share of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) among total new registrations in Europe was 16% in March 2025, the same as in February 2025. The BMW pool had the highest BEV share in March (25%) and was followed by the Mercedes-Volvo-Polestar (23%), Kia (19%), Hyundai (18%), and Volkswagen (17%) pools. The Tesla-Stellantis-Toyota pool (14% BEV share) was below the European average, as were Renault (12%), SAIC (8%), and Nissan (6%). Shares of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in new registrations in Europe increased slightly to 8% in March, led by the Mercedes-Volvo-Polestar pool with a 23% PHEV share. SAIC had the largest share of full hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) in March, 41%, and that was a 24 percentage point increase over the 2024 average share. The BMW and Mercedes-Volvo-Polestar pools and Nissan led in new registration shares of mild hybrid electric vehicles (MHEVs) at 37%.

Figure 1. Share of battery electric in new passenger car registrations in Europe

Figure 2. Average CO₂ emissions of manufacturer pools and individual manufacturers compared with estimated 2025 targets, 2025 YTD

Note: Note: Includes compliance credits. All CO₂ values are estimates according to the Worldwide harmonized Light vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP). Only manufacturer pools and individual manufacturers with at least 1% market share YTD are shown. See the section on definitions, data sources, methodology, and assumptions for more.

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions among manufacturer pools averaged 103 g CO₂/km in March 2025. As a result, manufacturing pools remain 10 g CO₂/km from the average target of 93 g CO₂/km for 2025. The Hyundai and Tesla-Stellantis-Toyota pools reduced their target gaps significantly compared with the previous month, by 25% and 13%, respectively. The BMW pool is currently in compliance with its 2025 target, while Nissan (29 g CO₂/km above) is the farthest from reaching its target.

Looking at individual car brands with market shares of 1% or larger, apart from Tesla, Volvo had the greatest over-compliance at 29 g CO₂/km below its projected brand-level target for 2025 and was followed by Cupra (19 g CO₂/km below target). While Audi’s target gap remains sizable at 30 CO₂/km, that is a 3 g CO₂/km reduction from the previous month. Ford (26 CO₂/km) and Mercedes-Benz (24 CO₂/km), also among the highest-emitting brands, reduced their target gaps by 2 CO₂/km each. Nissan’s target gap increased by 3 CO2/km in March compared with the previous month, and reached 29 CO₂/km.

Table 1. Share of battery electric, plug-in hybrid, full hybrid, and mild hybrid passenger cars by manufacturer pool or large manufacturer not forming a pool

Table 2. Fleet-average CO2 emissions of new passenger cars and market share by manufacturer pool or large manufacturer not forming a pool

Table 3. Fleet-average CO2 emissions of new passenger cars and market share by manufacturer group and brand

Passenger car registrations by country

Looking at the major European markets, total passenger car registrations in France and the Netherlands fell 15% in March compared with March 2024, and Italy surpassed France in market size. New registrations increased 24% in Spain and 19% in Czechia compared with the same month in the previous year. Combined BEV and PHEV market shares averaged 24% in Europe in March 2025, up 1 percentage point from February 2025. Norway (95%), Denmark (68%), Sweden (58%), and the Netherlands (53%) all had shares above 50%, and Belgium (41%), Austria (30%), and Germany (27%) also recorded combined BEV and PHEV market shares above the average for Europe. Among the largest markets, the highest increase in BEV registrations occurred in Czechia, Spain, and Italy, where registrations increased 261%, 94%, and 78%, respectively, in March 2025 compared with March 2024; meanwhile, registrations in France and the Netherlands decreased 14% compared with March 2024. Over 42,000 BEVs were registered last month in Germany, Europe’s largest market, and that was up 35% over March 2024. The largest year-over-year increase in PHEV registrations was in Czechia (+90% over March 2024) and HEV registrations increased the most in Spain (+34%). Shares of MHEVs were highest in Italy (32%) and Poland (30%) in March 2025, and they are gaining popularity in France and Spain, where registrations increased 59% (France) and 52% (Spain) in March 2025 compared with March 2024.

Figure 3. Share of plug-in hybrid and battery electric passenger cars by country, including information on market size (total new car registrations)

Note: “Other” includes EEA countries not individually highlighted in the figure, except for Bulgaria, Liechtenstein, and Malta.

Table 4. New passenger car registrations by country

Table 5. New battery electric, plug-in hybrid, hybrid, and mild hybrid passenger car registrations by country

Table 6. Share of new battery electric, plug-in hybrid, full hybrid, and mild hybrid passenger cars by country

Passenger car registrations by owner

Private cars made up over 40% of new registrations in Europe in 2024, and these were followed by company fleets with 36%, and then car dealers and manufacturers and short-term rentals, which made up 14% and 9% of the total registrations, respectively. Short-term rental registrations fluctuated more than other owner types; they ranged from nearly 13% of sales in May 2024 to only 5% in October 2024. In February 2025, the split of new registrations by owner type largely mirrored that of February 2024.

Figure 4. New passenger car registrations by owner for 19 select European countries

Van registrations

Over 346,000 new vans were registered in Europe in the first quarter of 2025, a 13% decrease over the same period in 2024. Of newly registered vans, 9% were battery electric; in the first quarter of 2024, 6% of new vans were battery electric. Nissan (13%), the Volkswagen pool (12%), Toyota (11%), and the Renault (10%) and Stellantis (9%) pools all had BEV shares at or above the European average; the Mercedes-Benz (7%) and Ford (4%) pools and Iveco (1%) were below the European average. Looking at the largest markets, shares of battery electric vans increased by 1 to 2 percentage points in the first quarter of 2025 compared with the same period in 2024. None of the manufacturers are currently on track to meet their CO₂ targets for 2025 and the average target gap is 18 g CO₂/km. Among manufacturers and manufacturer pools, Iveco and the Ford and Mercedes-Benz pools are currently the farthest from their 2025 CO₂ targets, with respective target gaps of 35, 33, and 32 g CO₂/km.

Table 7. Share of battery electric, plug-in hybrid, full hybrid, and mild hybrid vans by manufacturer pool or large manufacturer not forming a pool

Table 8. Fleet-average CO2 emissions of new vans and market share by manufacturer pool or large manufacturer not forming a pool

Table 9. New van registrations by country

Table 10. Share of battery electric, plug-in hybrid, full hybrid, and mild hybrid vans by country

Charging infrastructure development

Over 1 million public charging points were installed in Europe by the end of the first quarter of 2025, up from around 950,000 at the end of 2024. For alternating current (AC) charging, this represents a 28% increase compared with the same point in 2024. Direct current (DC) charging points showed even greater growth, increasing 54% compared with the first quarter of 2024. Approximately 81% of Europe’s public charging points supply AC, and the remaining 19% supply DC. Denmark recorded the largest growth in DC chargers by the end of the first quarter of 2025, +104% compared with the first quarter of 2024, and was followed by Belgium, which recorded a substantial increase in both DC and AC publicly accessible charging points (+92% and +60%, respectively). There were on average about 7.2 publicly accessible 22 kW-equivalent charging points installed per thousand passenger cars and vans on the road in Europe at the end of March 2025, up from 6.5 at the end of 2024. With nearly 46 publicly accessible 22 kW-equivalent charging points per thousand passenger cars and vans, Norway continues to lead Europe in charging infrastructure and is followed by Iceland (35), Denmark (30), and Sweden (22). Italy (3) and Spain (3) remain well below the European average.

Figure 5. 22 kW-equivalent publicly accessible charging points installed per thousand passenger cars and vans, by type of power output and country by the end of March 2025

Note: The width of the bars provides information on passenger car and van stock size estimates as of the end of 2024. 22 kW-equivalent is used to account for different power outputs while allowing for comparison among countries.

Table 11. Number of publicly accessible charging points installed, by country and type of power output

Definitions, data sources, methodology, and assumptions

Manufacturer pools: Automakers are allowed to form pools to jointly comply with CO2 targets. For this publication, the 2025 pools listed in the European Commission’s “M1 pooling list” (cars) and “N1 pooling list” (vans), version of 15 March 2025, are used. 2024 closed pools from these lists have been carried over into 2025, even in the absence of a 2025 formal declaration, as they typically remain stable due to ongoing commercial affiliations (e.g., the BMW, Hyundai, and Kia pools). In contrast, only open pools that have been confirmed for 2025 are included, as their composition tends to change more frequently than closed pools. Additionally, it is assumed that the Renault Group forms closed passenger car and van pools in 2025 with its affiliated manufacturers. For cars, the main brands are: BMW pool (BMW, Mini), Hyundai pool (Hyundai), Kia pool (Kia), Mercedes-Volvo-Polestar pool (Mercedes-Benz, Polestar, Smart, Volvo), Renault pool (Dacia, Renault), Tesla-Stellantis-Toyota pool (Citroën, Fiat, Ford, Jeep, Mazda, Opel, Peugeot, Suzuki, Tesla, Toyota), Volkswagen (Audi, Cupra, Porsche, SEAT, Škoda, VW). For vans, the main brands are: Ford pool (Ford), Mercedes-Benz pool (Mercedes-Benz, Mitsubishi Fuso), Renault pool (Renault), Stellantis pool (Citroën, Fiat, Opel, Peugeot), Volkswagen pool (MAN, Volkswagen). Nissan and SAIC are large passenger car manufacturers not part of a pool. Similarly, Iveco, Nissan, and Toyota are large van manufacturers not part of a pool.

Abbreviations: AC = alternating current; CO2 = carbon dioxide emissions; DC = direct current; g/km = grams per kilometer; YTD = year-to-date; ZLEV = zero- and low-emission vehicle.

Technical scope: This publication focuses on new passenger car and van registrations. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are powered exclusively by an electric motor, with no additional source of propulsion. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) combine a conventional combustion engine with an electric propulsion system that can be recharged via an external power source. Hybrid electric vehicles here include full hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and mild hybrid electric vehicles (MHEVs). HEVs and MHEVs integrate two propulsion systems, usually a combustion engine and an electric propulsion system that cannot be recharged via an external power source. Key differences between HEVs and MHEVs are the system voltage and system power. This enables HEVs to drive partially pure electric, while the electric propulsion system of MHEVs is typically only capable of assisting the combustion engine. For more on HEVs and MHEVs see: Jan Dornoff et al., Mild-Hybrid Vehicles: A Near Term Technology Trend for CO2 Emissions Reduction (International Council on Clean Transportation, 2022), https://theicct.org/publication/mild-hybrid-emissions-jul22/.

Geographic scope: The European CO2 regulation for vehicle manufacturers applies to all countries of the European Economic Area (EEA). This includes the 27 Member States of the European Union plus Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway. Data for new car and van registrations and shares of electric vehicles in this publication cover all of these countries, with the exception of Liechtenstein and Malta. Data for CO2 emission levels additionally omits Bulgaria and Romania. Charging infrastructure data are presented for the 27 EU members plus the four European Free Trade Association countries (Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Switzerland).

Data sources: Dataforce (new vehicle registrations), Eco-Movement (charging points), European Environment Agency (vehicle mass and eco-innovation credits).

Results may change over time: Registrations and/or CO2 data may be retrospectively updated by some of the national type-approval authorities. Similarly, charging infrastructure data may also be retrospectively updated by Eco-Movement. Historical values are regularly updated to reflect all latest data available.

Test procedures: CO2 values are provided according to the Worldwide harmonized Light vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP).

Flexible compliance mechanisms: To facilitate meeting their CO2 targets, manufacturers can make use of a number of compliance mechanisms: (1) Manufacturers can reduce their CO2 level by up to 6 g/km by deploying eco-innovation technologies. As a conservative estimate, we apply the 2023 level of eco-innovation CO2 emission reductions per brand. For more on the methodology used, see: Uwe Tietge, Peter Mock, and Jan Dornoff, Overview and Evaluation of Eco-Innovations in European Passenger Car CO2 Standards (International Council on Clean Transportation, 2018), https://theicct.org/publications/eco-innovations-european-passenger-car-co2-standards; (2) If a manufacturer’s ZLEV share exceeds 25% (cars) or 17% (vans), its CO2 target is increased by the same number of percentage points, up to a maximum of 5%. This adjustment is referred to as the ZLEV factor, while the target before adjustment is called the manufacturer reference target. The manufacturer target is calculated by multiplying the reference target by the ZLEV factor. ZLEVs are BEVs and vehicles with CO2 emissions of 50 g/km (WLTP) or less. For details on the ZLEV factor mechanism, see: Jan Dornoff, CO2 Emission Standards for New Passenger Cars and Vans in the European Union (International Council on Clean Transportation, 2023), https://theicct.org/publication/eu-co2-standards-cars-vans-may23/.

Mass-based targets: For each manufacturer or manufacturer pool, a specific 2025 CO2 target value applies, depending on the average WLTP test mass of the new vehicles registered. For this publication, we assume the average WLTP test mass per manufacturer remains the same as in 2023; the average 2023 BEV and non-BEV test mass for each manufacturer was calculated based on EEA data and then weighted according to their year-to-date 2025 BEV market shares. For more on the methodology used, see: Uwe Tietge, Jan Dornoff, and Peter Mock, CO2 Emissions From New Passenger Cars in Europe: Car Manufacturers’ Performance in 2023 (International Council Clean Transportation, 2024), https://theicct.org/publication/co2-emissions-new-pv-europe-car-manufacturers-performance-2023-sept24/.

Charging point: As defined in the Alternative Fuels Infrastructure Regulation, a charging point “means a fixed or mobile interface that allows for the transfer of electricity to an electric vehicle, which, whilst it may have one or several connectors to accommodate different connector types, is capable of recharging only one electric vehicle at a time, and excludes devices with a power output less than or equal to 3.7 kW the primary purpose of which is not recharging electric vehicles.”

Owner types: This publication considers four types of owners: private cars, company fleets, short-term rentals, and car dealers and manufacturers. The private car category includes all registrations under private individuals, including those of self-employed persons, provided the vehicles are not registered under a company name. Private leasing is also included. Company fleets encompass all vehicles registered to companies, excluding those intended for resale or rental. This category includes company and public administration fleets, commercial long-term rentals, commercial leases, taxis, driving schools, diplomats, etc. The size of the fleet and the extent to which the vehicles are used privately are not considered relevant. The short-term rentals type covers all registrations under large or small national and local rental companies. It also covers all vehicles flagged by authorities as being used for self-drive rental purposes. The car dealers and manufacturers type includes all vehicles registered by car dealers and manufacturers. For automakers, this includes vehicles used for press purposes as well as those for their employees. New registrations data by owner type is aggregated for the following 19 European countries: Austria, Belgium, Czechia, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and United Kingdom.

This publication is a collaboration between the ICCT, IMT-IDDRI, and ECCO think tank.

The post European Market Monitor: Cars and vans (March 2025) appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

Evolução do mercado de veículos pesados no Brasil

D'Errah Scott — Mon, 28 Apr 2025 04:01:32 +0000

As vendas de veículos pesados no Brasil alcançaram 148 mil unidades em 2024, um crescimento de 16% em relação a 2023 e o maior valor em uma década. Ainda assim, as vendas não se recuperaram para os níveis de 2012–2014, antes da queda identificada a partir de 2015 em decorrência de fatores como recessão econômica, restrições de crédito e excesso de oferta.

Caminhões pesados (acima de 15 toneladas) dominam as vendas nesta categoria. Seu market share cresceu gradualmente de 2015 até 2021 e, desde então, permaneceu estável, em torno de 70%. Fabricantes europeus lideram o segmento, com a Volvo detendo 24% do mercado em 2024, seguida pela MAN (22%) e Scania (20%), ambas pertencentes ao Grupo Traton. A Mercedes-Benz, anteriormente líder do segmento, perdeu 7 pontos percentuais desde 2021, atingindo um market share de 18% em 2024.

Entre caminhões leves e médios (3,5 a 15 toneladas), utilizados principalmente em entregas urbanas, MAN e Mercedes-Benz consolidaram a liderança, com 74% do mercado em 2024. No segmento de ônibus, a Mercedes-Benz manteve a sua liderança, apesar de uma queda de 13 pontos percentuais, com 42% das vendas de chassis. A MAN obteve 26% de participação, enquanto a brasileira Agrale alcançou 16%.

Figura 2. Market share por segmento e fabricante, 2021–2024

CAMINHÕES

Os caminhões representaram cerca de 85% das vendas de veículos pesados nos últimos anos.

Entre os caminhões pesados, caminhões tratores 6×2 e 6×4 foram as configurações predominantes, com 41 mil unidades vendidas em 2023, representando 51% das vendas. Os caminhões pesados rígidos, liderados pelos modelos 4×2, 6×2 e 6×4, somaram 38% das vendas do subsegmento no mesmo ano.

As vendas de caminhões leves e médios, categoria menos variada, foram dominadas pelos rígidos com configuração de eixo 4×2, que somaram 21 mil unidades vendidas em 2023, o que equivale a 77% das vendas desse segmento. No entanto, entre 2021 e 2023, houve um aumento na participação de caminhões 4×4, comumente destinados a aplicações que exigem maior tração.

Figura 3. Market share por segmento e configuração, 2012-2023

CAMINHÕES PESADOS

O mercado de caminhões pesados se encontra concentrado em poucos fabricantes europeus. Além disso, cada fabricante tende a focar em algumas determinadas configurações. As vendas de caminhões tratores 6×4 e 6×2 foram lideradas por Volvo e Scania, que juntas detiveram 53% do mercado em 2023. Entre os caminhões rígidos com configurações 4×2, 6×2 e 6×4, MAN e Mercedes-Benz se destacaram, garantindo mais de 65% do market share em cada categoria. O diesel continua sendo o principal combustível da frota de caminhões pesados novos, com 99,8% de participação. Além disso, desde março de 2024, a adição de biodiesel ao diesel aumentou de 12% para 14%, reforçando a presença de biocombustível no setor. Embora ainda representem uma fatia pequena do mercado (0,04% em 2023), os caminhões pesados elétricos estão concentrados nos modelos rígidos 6×4. Os veículos movidos a gás natural (0,18%) são, em sua maioria, tratores 6×2, e sua baixa participação reflete aplicações específicas e a rede restrita de distribuição do combustível no país.

Figura 4. Market share de caminhões pesados por configuração e fabricante em 2023

Figura 5. Vendas de caminhões pesados por configuração e tipo de combustível em 2023

CAMINHÕES LEVES E MÉDIOS

O mercado de caminhões leves e médios é composto principalmente por veículos rígidos projetados para operações urbanas e de curta distância. Na configuração 4×2, Mercedes-Benz e MAN, juntas, responderam por 80% das vendas em 2023. Já na configuração 4×4, a Stellantis domina quase todo o mercado com sua marca RAM, que apresenta em seu catálogo veículos que pesam até 5,3 toneladas e alcançou mais de quatro mil unidades vendidas no mesmo ano. Embora os caminhões leves e médios elétricos tenham representado 1,3% das vendas em 2023, a eletrificação vem ganhando espaço neste segmento devido a vantagens operacionais, como menor custo de manutenção e adequação a operações urbanas. Por outro lado, o diesel continua predominante neste segmento, com um market share de 98,7%. As vendas de caminhões leves e médios a diesel são concentradas em modelos 4×2.

Figura 6. Market share de caminhões leves e médios por configuração e fabricante em 2023

Figura 7. Vendas de caminhões leves e médios por configuração e tipo de combustível em 2023

CAMINHÕES ELÉTRICOS

Foram vendidos 480 caminhões elétricos no Brasil em 2024, com cerca de 90% das vendas concentradas em caminhões leves e médios. Ao contrário dos caminhões a diesel, dominados por fabricantes europeus, o segmento elétrico registrou a entrada de marcas chinesas e norte-americanas. Até 2023, a chinesa JAC liderava o mercado, impulsionada pelo modelo iEV1200T, um caminhão rígido 4×2 de até 8,5 toneladas. Em 2024, porém, a MAN assumiu a liderança, alcançando 49% das vendas com o modelo e-Delivery, montado no Brasil, que têm versões de rígidos 4×2 e 6×2 e pesa até 14,3 toneladas. Apesar do crescimento recente, o mercado de caminhões elétricos ainda é pequeno, com grandes variações nas vendas entre fabricantes. As tendências de vendas têm sido influenciadas parcialmente por políticas de incentivos. Caminhões elétricos foram isentos de impostos de importação entre 2015 e 2024, mas esse imposto está sendo gradualmente retomado e deve atingir 35% até 2026.

Figura 8. Vendas de caminhões elétricos por fabricante, 2021–2024

ÔNIBUS

Nos últimos anos, os ônibus têm representado cerca de 15% do mercado de veículos pesados no país. Em 2024, foram vendidas aproximadamente 22 mil unidades, o que representa um crescimento de 9,8% em relação a 2023. Esse aumento foi impulsionado principalmente pela venda de ônibus urbanos. A renovação de frotas em diversas cidades e o aumento de investimentos em transporte público também podem ter influenciado esse desempenho. O diesel continua sendo o principal combustível para ônibus, com 99,6% de participação nas unidades novas vendidas em 2023. Os modelos elétricos, que representaram os 0,4% restantes das vendas, estão ganhando espaço, especialmente no segmento de ônibus urbanos, devido à demanda por alternativas de baixa emissão e à maior facilidade de eletrificação em comparação com os ônibus rodoviários. A eletrificação do transporte público enfrenta desafios, como os altos custos iniciais e a necessidade de expansão da infraestrutura de recarga. No entanto, espera-se um crescimento gradual nos próximos anos, à medida que mais cidades adotem metas de implementação da tecnologia apoiadas por políticas de financiamento público, como o Plano de Aceleração do Crescimento (Novo PAC).

Figura 9. Market share por tipo de ônibus, 2021-2023

Figura 10. Vendas por tipo de ônibus e combustível em 2023

IMPORTAÇÃO E EXPORTAÇÃO

A maior parte da produção de veículos pesados no Brasil é destinada ao mercado interno, apesar do país ser um exportador líquido desse tipo de veículo. Em 2024, os veículos pesados exportados representaram 13% da produção total. Os caminhões representam a maior parcela das exportações de veículos pesados, embora o volume apresente uma variação significativa ao longo do tempo. Em 2024, os caminhões representaram 79% das exportações de veículos pesados, com aproximadamente 18 mil unidades, um aumento de 5,6% em relação a 2023. As exportações de caminhões alcançaram US$ 2,25 bilhões em 2024, um aumento de 4,6% em relação ao ano anterior. Os principais destinos dos caminhões brasileiros foram países da América Latina, especialmente Argentina, México e Chile, que juntos representaram 63% do volume exportado em 2024. As exportações de ônibus, por outro lado, têm apresentado uma tendência de queda na última década. Em 2024, cerca de 5 mil unidades foram exportadas. Embora modesto em volume, isso representou US$ 160 milhões em receita de exportação.

Figura 11. Evolução das importações e exportações, 2012-2024

Figura 12. Destino das exportações, 2021-2024

EMPREGOS

O aumento da competitividade da indústria nacional e a geração de empregos são objetivos das políticas públicas para o setor automotivo, como o Programa Nacional de Mobilidade Verde e Inovação (MOVER), instituído em 2024. Em 2022 e 2023, a indústria de motores, veículos, carrocerias e reboques para veículos pesados gerou cerca de 82 mil empregos diretos. As empresas cuja principal atividade é a fabricação de veículos pesados (caminhões e ônibus) empregaram mais de 34 mil trabalhadores em 2023. A produção de reboques e carrocerias para veículos pesados concentrou mais de 44 mil empregos no mesmo período, enquanto a fabricação de motores para esses veículos gerou cerca de 3 mil postos de trabalho. Após a contração do setor a partir de 2013, reflexo da desaceleração econômica do país, o segmento de veículos pesados voltou a crescer a partir de 2017. No entanto, apesar do crescimento geral, o volume de empregos diretos na fabricação de caminhões e ônibus caiu 3,5% em 2023 em relação a 2022, embora a produção de reboques e carrocerias tenha registrado um aumento no nível de empregabilidade. Esses números não contabilizam uma ampla gama de empregos indiretos relacionados ao setor de veículos pesados.

Figura 13. Número de empregos diretos por atividade, 2012-2023

Figura 14. Variação anual do número de empregos por atividade, 2012-2023

DEFINIÇÕES E BASE DE DADOS

Nesta publicação, veículos pesados são definidos como veículos comerciais destinados ao transporte de passageiros ou cargas, com peso bruto total (PBT) acima de 3,5 toneladas. Caminhões pesados são aqueles com PBT superior a 15 toneladas. Já caminhões leves e médios possuem PBT entre 3,5 e 15 toneladas. Ônibus são veículos projetados para o transporte de passageiros em ambientes urbanos ou rodoviários, com PBT acima de 3,5 toneladas.

A Jato Dynamics forneceu dados de vendas por fabricante entre 2021 e 2023, incluindo modelo e tecnologia. As vendas de veículos elétricos por fabricante para 2024 foram extraídas da Federação Nacional da Distribuição de Veículos Automotores (Fenabrave). As configurações de eixos foram extraídas das fichas técnicas dos veículos.

Os dados sobre produção, licenciamento, importações totais e exportações de veículos estão disponíveis nos dados estatísticos da Associação Nacional dos Fabricantes de Veículos Automotores (ANFAVEA). Os dados de exportação por país de destino em valores monetários são provenientes do sistema Comex Stat do Ministério do Desenvolvimento, Indústria, Comércio e Serviços (MDIC). Os valores de exportação de caminhões e ônibus correspondem às classificações da Nomenclatura Comum do Mercosul (NCM) 8702 e 8704, respectivamente, excluindo off-road dumpers (NCM 87041010 e 87041090).

Os dados de emprego referem-se ao número de postos formais declarados pelas empresas na Relação Anual de Informações Sociais (RAIS) do Ministério do Trabalho e Emprego (MTE). A atividade principal das empresas é classificada segundo a Classificação Nacional de Atividades Econômicas (CNAE 2.0), abrangendo: Fabricação de Caminhões e Ônibus (29.20-4/01), Fabricação de Motores para Caminhões e Ônibus (29.20-4/02), Fabricação de Cabines, Carrocerias e Reboques para Caminhões (29.30-1/01) e Fabricação de Carrocerias para Ônibus (29.30-1/02).

Nesta publicação, a categoria Outros inclui fabricantes ou configurações que representam menos de 5% do mercado ou da participação no segmento.

FABRICANTES E MARCAS

Fabricante	Marcas
Agrale	Agrale
BYD	BYD
DAF	DAF
Ford	Ford
Foton	Foton
GMC	Hummer
Hyundai	Hyundai
Iveco	Iveco
JAC	JAC
MAN	MAN, Volkswagen
Mercedes-Benz	Mercedes-Benz
Nanjing	Nanjing
Scania	Scania
Stellantis	Citroen, Dodge, Fiat, Peugeot, RAM
Tesla	Tesla
Volvo	Volvo

The post Evolução do mercado de veículos pesados no Brasil appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

European Market Monitor: Cars and vans (February 2025)

D'Errah Scott — Tue, 25 Mar 2025 22:31:52 +0000

Passenger car registrations

The average share of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) among total new registrations in Europe remained stable at 16% in February 2025, the same as in January 2025. The KG Mobility manufacturer pool had the highest BEV share in February (41%), and was followed by the BMW (25%), Mercedes-Volvo-Polestar (23%), Kia (22%), Volkswagen (18%), and Hyundai (17%) pools. The Tesla-Stellantis-Toyota pool was below the average (13% BEV share) and two additional brands, Suzuki and Honda, entered the pool in February. Similarly, the BEV share of the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi pool (11%) was below the market average. Meanwhile, for Hyundai, the BEV share notably increased by 4 percentage points from January to February 2025 and it is above the European average. Shares of full hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) remained constant—13% average for the European market—and the Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi pool (29%) increased its share by 3 percentage points compared with the previous month. The Mercedes-Volvo-Polestar and BMW pools led in new registration shares of mild hybrid electric vehicles (MHEVs) at 38% and 36%, respectively, and Tesla-Stellantis-Toyota also had a high share, 34% (up from 29% in January 2025). The share of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in new registrations in Europe stayed constant at 7%.

Figure 1. Share of battery electric in new passenger car registrations in Europe

Figure 2. Average CO₂ emissions of manufacturer pools compared with their estimated 2025 targets, 2025 YTD

Note: Average emissions include compliance credits. All CO₂ values are estimates according to the Worldwide harmonized Light vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP). See the section on definitions, data sources, methodology, and assumptions for details.

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions among manufacturer pools averaged 103 g CO₂/km in February 2025. As a result, manufacturing pools remain 10 g CO₂/km from the average target of 93 g CO₂/km for 2025. After two months, KG Mobility and BMW are currently in compliance with their 2025 targets, while Volkswagen (17 g CO₂/km above) is the farthest from reaching its target.

Looking at individual car brands with market shares of 1% or greater, apart from Tesla, Volvo had the greatest over-compliance at 30 g CO₂/km below its projected brand-level target for 2025 and was followed by Cupra (17 g CO₂/km below target). Meanwhile, Audi (33 g CO₂/km above target), Mazda (+30), Ford (+28), SEAT (+27), and Nissan and Mercedes-Benz (both +26) are currently the farthest from their projected brand-level targets for 2025.

Table 1. Share of battery electric, plug-in hybrid, full hybrid, and mild hybrid passenger cars by manufacturer pool

Table 2. Fleet-average CO2 emissions of new passenger cars and market share by manufacturer pool

Table 3. Fleet-average CO2 emissions of new passenger cars and market share by manufacturer group

Passenger car registrations by country

Looking at the major European markets, total passenger car registrations in Belgium and the Netherlands fell 8% compared with February 2024, while registrations in Spain increased 12%. Combined BEV and PHEV market shares averaged 23% in Europe in February 2025, down 1 percentage point from January. Norway (97%), Denmark (67%), Sweden (56%), and the Netherlands (51%) all had shares above 50%, and Belgium (41%), Ireland (29%), and Germany (26%) also recorded combined BEV and PHEV market shares above the average for Europe. Among the largest markets, the highest increases in BEV registrations occurred in Czechia and Spain, where shares increased 66% and 61%, respectively, in February 2025 compared with February 2024. Nearly 36,000 BEVs were registered last month in Germany, Europe’s largest market, and that was up 31% over February 2024. Over the same period, PHEV registration shares increased the most in Belgium (+67%) and HEV shares increased the most in Spain (+56%). Additionally, MHEVs are gaining popularity in France, where sales reached 23% in February 2025, up 86% from February 2024.

Figure 3. Share of plug-in hybrid and battery electric passenger cars by country, including information on market size (total new car registrations)

Note: “Other” includes EEA countries not individually highlighted in the figure, except for Bulgaria, Liechtenstein, and Malta. Data for Portugal, which is categorized under “Other,” is for January 2025 only.

Table 4. New passenger car registrations by country

Table 5. Share of battery electric, plug-in hybrid, full hybrid, and mild hybrid passenger cars by country

Table 6. Share of new battery electric, plug-in hybrid, full hybrid, and mild hybrid passenger cars by country

Passenger car registrations by owner

Private cars made up over 40% of new registrations in Europe in 2024, and these were followed by company fleets with 36%, and then car dealers and manufacturers and short-term rentals, which made up 14% and 9% of the total registrations, respectively. Short-term rental registrations fluctuated more than other owner types; they ranged from nearly 13% of sales in May to only 5% in October 2024. In January 2025, the split of new registrations by owner type mirrored that of January 2024, with private cars accounting for 42% – a 2 percentage point increase from the previous year.

Figure 4. New passenger car registrations by owner for 19 select European countries

Spotlight: Italy

From May to December 2024, the Italian government provided purchase incentives for BEVs ranging from €6,000 to €13,750 per vehicle, with the highest amounts reserved for lower-income buyers and those scrapping older vehicles of Euro 4 emission standards or lower. Part of the Ecobonus scheme, these incentives were well received by consumers and the allocated €240 million was exhausted within hours of the program’s launch. In addition to BEVs, Ecobonus also included dedicated funds for PHEVs and conventional cars emitting up to 135 g CO2/km; unlike the BEV incentives, these funds lasted for most of the program’s duration. Even after the purchase incentive program ended, electric vehicle shares in Italy remained higher than 1 year before. In February 2025, approximately 5.0% (6,925 vehicles) of all new passenger car registrations in Italy were BEVs. This represents a 38% increase compared with February 2024. Including January 2025 registrations (6,721 vehicles, +132% compared with January 2024), total BEV sales in the first two months of 2025 amounted to 13,646 units, marking a 73% increase over the same period in 2024. For PHEVs, the market share in February was 4.5% (6,186 units sold), up 32% compared with February 2024 and up 26% over the first two months in 2024.

Figure 5. Share of plug-in hybrid and battery electric vehicles in new passenger car registrations in Italy

Definitions, data sources, methodology, and assumptions

Manufacturer pools: Automakers are allowed to form pools to jointly comply with CO2 targets. For this publication, the 2025 pools are defined according to the European Commission’s “M1 pooling list,” version of 15 March 2025. The main brands are: BMW pool (BMW, Mini), Hyundai pool (Hyundai), KG Mobility pool (Great Wall Motor, Xpeng), Kia pool (Kia), Mercedes-Volvo-Polestar pool (Mercedes-Benz, Polestar, Smart, Volvo), Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi pool (Dacia, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Renault), Tesla-Stellantis-Toyota pool (Alfa Romeo, Citroën, Fiat, Ford, Honda, Jeep, Lancia, Leapmotor, Lexus, Mazda, Opel, Peugeot, Subaru, Suzuki, Tesla, Toyota), Volkswagen (Audi, Cupra, Porsche, SEAT, Škoda, VW).

Abbreviations: CO2 = carbon dioxide emissions; g/km = grams per kilometer; ZLEV = zero- and low-emission vehicle.

Technical scope: This publication focuses on new passenger car registrations. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are powered exclusively by an electric motor, with no additional source of propulsion. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) combine a conventional combustion engine with an electric propulsion system that can be recharged via an external power source. Hybrid electric vehicles here include full hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and mild hybrid electric vehicles (MHEVs). HEVs and MHEVs integrate two propulsion systems, usually a combustion engine and an electric propulsion system that cannot be recharged via an external power source. Key differences between HEVs and MHEVs are the system voltage and system power. This enables HEVs to drive partially pure electric, while the electric propulsion system of MHEVs is typically only capable of assisting the combustion engine. For more on HEVs and MHEVs see: Jan Dornoff et al., Mild-Hybrid Vehicles: A Near Term Technology Trend for CO2 Emissions Reduction (International Council on Clean Transportation, 2022), https://theicct.org/publication/mild-hybrid-emissions-jul22/.

Geographic scope: The European CO2 regulation for vehicle manufacturers applies to all countries of the European Economic Area (EEA). This includes the 27 Member States of the European Union plus Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway. Data for new car registrations and shares of electric vehicles in this publication cover all of these countries, with the exception of Liechtenstein, Malta, and Portugal. Data for CO2 emission levels additionally omits Bulgaria and Romania.

Data sources: Dataforce (new vehicle registrations), European Environment Agency (vehicle mass and eco-innovation credits).

Results may change over time: Registrations and/or CO2 data may be retrospectively updated by some of the national type-approval authorities.

Test procedures: CO2 values are provided according to the Worldwide harmonized Light vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP).

Flexible compliance mechanisms: To facilitate meeting their CO2 targets, manufacturers can make use of a number of compliance mechanisms: (1) Manufacturers can reduce their CO2 level by up to 6 g/km by deploying eco-innovation technologies. As a conservative estimate, we apply the 2023 level of eco-innovation CO2 emission reductions per brand. For more on the methodology used, see: Uwe Tietge, Peter Mock, and Jan Dornoff, Overview and Evaluation of Eco-Innovations in European Passenger Car CO2 Standards (International Council on Clean Transportation, 2018), https://theicct.org/publications/eco-innovations-european-passenger-car-co2-standards; (2) If a manufacturer’s ZLEV share exceeds 25%, its CO2 target is increased by the same number of percentage points, up to a maximum of 5%. This adjustment is referred to as the ZLEV factor, while the target before adjustment is called the manufacturer reference target. The manufacturer target is calculated by multiplying the reference target by the ZLEV factor. ZLEVs are BEVs and vehicles with CO2 emissions of 50 g/km (WLTP) or less. For details on the ZLEV factor mechanism, see: Jan Dornoff, CO2 Emission Standards for New Passenger Cars and Vans in the European Union (International Council on Clean Transportation, 2023), https://theicct.org/publication/eu-co2-standards-cars-vans-may23/.

Mass-based targets: For each manufacturer pool, a specific 2025 CO2 target value applies, depending on the average WLTP test mass of the new vehicles registered. For this publication, we assume the average WLTP test mass per manufacturer pool remains the same as in 2023; the average 2023 BEV and non-BEV test mass for each manufacturer was calculated based on European Environment Agency data and then weighted according to their year-to-date 2025 BEV market shares. For more on the methodology used, see: Uwe Tietge, Jan Dornoff, and Peter Mock, CO2 Emissions From New Passenger Cars in Europe: Car Manufacturers’ Performance in 2023 (International Council Clean Transportation, 2024), https://theicct.org/publication/co2-emissions-new-pv-europe-car-manufacturers-performance-2023-sept24/.

Owner types: This publication considers four types of owners: private cars, company fleets, short-term rentals, and car dealers and manufacturers. The private car category includes all registrations under private individuals, including those of self-employed persons, provided the vehicles are not registered under a company name. Private leasing is also included. Company fleets encompass all vehicles registered to companies, excluding those intended for resale or rental. This category includes company and public administration fleets, commercial long-term rentals, commercial leases, taxis, driving schools, diplomats, etc. The size of the fleet and the extent to which the vehicles are used privately are not considered relevant. The short-term rentals type covers all registrations under large or small national and local rental companies. It also covers all vehicles flagged by authorities as being used for self-drive rental purposes. The car dealers and manufacturers type includes all vehicles registered by car dealers and manufacturers. For automakers, this includes vehicles used for press purposes as well as those for their employees. New registrations data by owner type is aggregated for the following 19 European countries: Austria, Belgium, Czechia, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and United Kingdom.

This publication is a collaboration between the ICCT, IMT-IDDRI, and ECCO think tank.

The post European Market Monitor: Cars and vans (February 2025) appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

European Market Monitor: Cars and vans (January 2025)

D'Errah Scott — Tue, 25 Feb 2025 10:18:36 +0000

Passenger car registrations

The average share of battery electric vehicles (BEVs) among total new registrations in Europe was 16% in January 2025, down slightly from 17% in December 2024. The KG Mobility manufacturer pool had the highest BEV share (44%), and it was followed by Mercedes-Benz and BMW (each 24%), Kia (22%), and Volkswagen (17%). Kia’s BEV share of 22% was an increase of 8 percentage points from the month prior, December 2024. After adding the brands Smart, Volvo, and Polestar, the Mercedes-Benz manufacturer pool’s BEV share increased 6 percentage points over the previous month, to 24% in January 2025. While the Hyundai (13%), Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi (13%), and Tesla (12%) pools lagged in BEV sales, their shares of full hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), at 22%, 26%, and 22%, respectively, were well above the 13% average for European manufacturer pools. Suzuki dominated with its 83% share of mild hybrid electric vehicles (MHEVs), and was followed by Mercedes-Benz and BMW, each with 36%. The share of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) in new registrations in Europe was 7% in January 2025, the same as the average for full year 2024.

Figure 1. Share of battery electric in new passenger car registrations in Europe

Figure 2. Average CO₂ emissions of manufacturer pools compared with their estimated 2025 targets, 2025 YTD

Note: Average emissions include compliance credits. Suzuki is a large manufacturer that is not currently part of a pool. All CO₂ values are estimates according to the Worldwide harmonized Light vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP). See the section on definitions, data sources, methodology, and assumptions for details.

Average carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions (including compliance credits) among manufacturer pools fell substantially in the first month of the year to 103 g CO₂/km, down from the average of 107 g CO₂/km in 2024. KG Mobility, BMW, and Kia are thus far compliant with their estimated 2025 targets, while Volkswagen (17 g CO₂/km above) and Suzuki (13 g CO₂/km above) are the farthest from reaching their targets. Manufacturer pools are now only 10 g CO₂/km from the average target of 93 g CO₂/km for 2025. Looking at individual car brands with market shares of at least 1%, apart from Tesla, Volvo had the greatest over-compliance at 35 g CO₂/km below its target for 2025, when projecting the target at the brand level; it was followed by Cupra, which was 15 g CO₂/km below its brand-level target. Audi, Ford, and Mercedes-Benz are currently the farthest from their 2025 projected brand-level targets at 35, 28, and 27 g CO₂/km above, respectively.

Table 1. Share of battery electric, plug-in hybrid, full hybrid, and mild hybrid passenger cars by manufacturer pool and Suzuki, a large manufacturer not part of a pool

Table 2. Fleet-average CO2 emissions of new passenger cars and market share by manufacturer pool and Suzuki, a large manufacturer not part of a pool

Table 3. Fleet-average CO2 emissions of new passenger cars and market share by manufacturer group

Passenger car registrations by country

Passenger car registrations in Belgium fell 13% in January 2025 compared with January 2024, and registrations in Austria and Sweden increased by 16% and 14%, respectively. Combined BEV and PHEV market shares averaged 24% in Europe in January 2025, up two percentage points from the average for full year 2024. Norway (97%), Denmark (66%), Sweden (51%), and the Netherlands (50%) all had shares at or above 50%, and Belgium (43%), Ireland (28%), and Germany (25%) recorded combined BEV and PHEV market shares above the average for Europe. The highest increase in BEV registrations occurred in Belgium, where shares increased 5 percentage points in January 2025 compared with January 2024; meanwhile, BEV shares in Sweden dropped 6 percentage points compared with January 2024. Registration shares of PHEVs were the highest in Sweden (23%), HEV shares were highest in Poland (27%), and MHEV shares were highest in Italy (33%).

Figure 3. Share of plug-in hybrid and battery electric passenger cars by country, including information on market size (total new car registrations)

Note: “Other” includes EEA countries not individually highlighted in the figure, except for Bulgaria, Cyprus, Liechtenstein, Hungary, Malta, and Slovakia.

Table 4. New passenger car registrations by country

Table 5. Share of battery electric, plug-in hybrid, full hybrid, and mild hybrid passenger cars by country

Passenger car registrations by owner

Figure 4. New passenger car registrations by owner for 20 select European countries

Spotlight: Germany

In January 2025, nearly 17% (34,500 vehicles) of all new passenger car registrations in Germany were BEVs. This was a 54% year-on-year increase, and January 2025 was the strongest January ever for BEV registrations in Germany. An additional 8.5% share of the market was PHEVs. Previously, market shares were declining in the country, particularly after the end of purchase incentives in January 2023 for PHEVs, in September 2023 for company BEVs, and in December 2023 for all BEVs. For 2025, the German Association of the Automotive Industry (VDA) forecasts the market share of BEVs and PHEVs to strongly increase to 31%. Domestic production of BEVs and PHEVs has already picked up, and rose to a record 155,700 vehicles in November 2024 and a record 1.35 million in 2024. The VDA forecast for BEV and PHEV production is about 1.7 million units (+24%) for 2025.

Figure 5. Share of plug-in hybrid and battery electric in new passenger car registrations in Germany. Source: VDA

Figure 6. Domestic plug-in hybrid and battery electric car production in Germany

Definitions, data sources, methodology, and assumptions

Manufacturer pools: Automakers are allowed to form pools to jointly comply with CO₂ targets. For this publication, the 2025 pools are defined according to the European Commission’s “M1 pooling list,” version of 15 January 2025, as well as the “Declarations of intent to form Open Pools,” version of 7 January 2025. The main brands are: BMW Group (BMW, Mini), Hyundai (Hyundai), KG Mobility (Great Wall Motor, Xpeng), Kia (Kia), Mercedes-Benz (Mercedes-Benz, Polestar, Smart, Volvo), Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi (Dacia, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Renault), Suzuki, Tesla (Alfa Romeo, Citroën, Fiat, Ford, Jeep, Lancia, Leapmotor, Lexus, Mazda, Opel, Peugeot, Subaru, Tesla, Toyota), Volkswagen (Audi, Cupra, Porsche, SEAT, Škoda, VW).

Abbreviations: CO₂ = carbon dioxide emissions; g/km = grams per kilometer; ZLEV = zero- and low-emission vehicle.

Technical scope: This publication focuses on new passenger car registrations. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are powered exclusively by an electric motor, with no additional source of propulsion. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) combine a conventional combustion engine with an electric propulsion system that can be recharged via an external power source. Hybrid electric vehicles here include full hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and mild hybrid electric vehicles (MHEVs). HEVs and MHEVs integrate two propulsion systems, usually a combustion engine and an electric propulsion system that cannot be recharged via an external power source. Key differences between HEVs and MHEVs are the system voltage and system power. This enables HEVs to drive partially pure electric, while the electric propulsion system of MHEVs is typically only capable of assisting the combustion engine. For more on HEVs and MHEVs, see Jan Dornoff, John German, Ashok Deo, and Athanasios Dimaratos, Mild-Hybrid Vehicles: A Near Term Technology Trend for CO₂ Emissions Reduction (International Council on Clean Transportation, 2022), https://theicct.org/publication/mild-hybrid-emissions-jul22/.

Geographic scope: The European CO₂ regulation for vehicle manufacturers applies to all countries of the European Economic Area (EEA). This includes the 27 Member States of the European Union plus Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway. Data for new car registrations and shares of electric vehicles in this publication cover all of these countries, with the exception of Cyprus, Liechtenstein, Hungary, Malta, and Slovakia. Data for CO₂ emission levels additionally omits Bulgaria and Romania.

Data sources: Dataforce (new vehicle registrations), European Environment Agency (EEA; vehicle WLTP test mass and eco-innovation credits), Verband der Automobilindustrie (VDA; historic vehicle production as well as forecasts on registrations and production for Germany).

Results may change over time: Registrations and/or CO₂ data may be retrospectively updated by some of the national type-approval authorities.

Test procedures: CO₂ values are provided according to the Worldwide harmonized Light vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP).

Flexible compliance mechanisms: To facilitate meeting their CO₂ targets, manufacturers can make use of a number of compliance mechanisms: (1) Manufacturers can reduce their CO₂ level by up to 6 g/km by deploying eco-innovation technologies. As a conservative estimate, we apply the 2023 level of eco-innovation CO₂ emission reductions per brand. For more on the methodology used, see Uwe Tietge, Peter Mock, and Jan Dornoff, Overview and Evaluation of Eco-Innovations in European Passenger Car CO₂ Standards (International Council on Clean Transportation, 2018), https://theicct.org/publications/eco-innovations-european-passenger-car-co2-standards; (2) If a manufacturer’s ZLEV share exceeds 25%, its CO₂ target is increased by the same number of percentage points, up to a maximum of 5%. This adjustment is referred to as the ZLEV factor, while the target before adjustment is called the manufacturer reference target. The manufacturer target is calculated by multiplying the reference target by the ZLEV factor. ZLEVs are BEVs and vehicles with CO2 emissions of 50 g/km (WLTP) or less. For details on the ZLEV factor mechanism, see Jan Dornoff, CO₂ Emission Standards for New Passenger Cars and Vans in the European Union (International Council on Clean Transportation, 2023), https://theicct.org/publication/eu-co2-standards-cars-vans-may23/.

Mass-based targets: For each manufacturer pool, a specific 2025 CO₂ target value applies, depending on the average WLTP test mass of the new vehicles registered. For this publication, we assume the average WLTP test mass per manufacturer pool remains the same as in 2023; the average 2023 BEV and non-BEV test mass for each manufacturer was calculated based on EEA data and then weighted according to their year-to-date 2025 BEV market shares. For more on the methodology used, see Uwe Tietge, Jan Dornoff, and Peter Mock, CO₂ Emissions From New Passenger Cars in Europe: Car Manufacturers’ Performance in 2023 (International Council Clean Transportation, 2024), https://theicct.org/publication/co2-emissions-new-pv-europe-car-manufacturers-performance-2023-sept24/.

Owner types: This publication considers four types of owners: private cars, company fleets, short-term rentals, and car dealers and manufacturers. The private car category includes all registrations under private individuals, including those of self-employed persons, provided the vehicles are not registered under a company name. Private leasing is also included. Company fleets encompass all vehicles registered to companies, excluding those intended for resale or rental. This category includes company and public administration fleets, commercial long-term rentals, commercial leases, taxis, driving schools, diplomats, etc. The size of the fleet and the extent to which the vehicles are used privately are not considered relevant. The short-term rentals type covers all registrations under large or small national and local rental companies. It also covers all vehicles flagged by authorities as being used for self-drive rental purposes. The car dealers and manufacturers type includes all vehicles registered by car dealers and manufacturers. For automakers, this includes vehicles used for press purposes as well as those for their employees. New registrations data by owner type is aggregated for the following 20 European countries: Austria, Belgium, Czechia, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom.

This publication is a collaboration between the ICCT, IMT-IDDRI, and ECCO think tank.

The post European Market Monitor: Cars and vans (January 2025) appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

Race to Zero: European Heavy-Duty Vehicle Market Development Quarterly (January–December 2024)

D'Errah Scott — Tue, 11 Feb 2025 22:18:02 +0000

Summary

Just over 14,000 zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) were sold in 2024, up from 11,000 in 2023. Heavy trucks (above 12 tonnes) had a zero-emission sales share of 1.2% in 2024, up from 0.9% in 2023; light and medium trucks (below 12 tonnes) had a 10% zero-emission share, up from 6% in 2023; and buses and coaches saw a marginal increase to 17% in 2024 from 16% in 2023. Sale shares of zero-emission buses and coaches fluctuated from a low of 12% in the first quarter to a high of 26% in the fourth quarter, and electric city buses pushed this share significantly. When the sales share of zero-emission city buses breached 50% in the fourth quarter of 2024, it marked the first quarter in which sales surpassed internal combustion engine buses.

Germany led the increase in sales of zero-emission trucks: Its sales of zero-emission heavy trucks rose from 750 (1% share) in 2023 to 1,200 (1.7% share) in 2024, and its sales of zero-emission light and medium trucks rose from 1,600 (7% share) in 2023 to 2,700 (16% share) in 2024. In other major vehicle markets such as Spain and Italy, which were a combined 6% of EU-27 sales in 2024, sales of zero-emission trucks remained low despite these markets accounting for nearly 20% of the conventional truck market.

Overall market developments

In 2024, sales of all HDVs were 360,000, down from 390,000 in 2023. This 8% drop was largely driven by a fall in sales in the third quarter, when the 74,000 vehicles sold was substantially lower than the 100,000 sold in the third quarter of 2023. Sales bounced back in the fourth quarter relative to the third by 12%, and 2024 ended with a similar sales volume as the same period in 2023. While Germany’s share of the market remained the same in 2024 as it was in 2023, France and Spain increased their shares by 1.5 and 2.5 percentage points, respectively.

Manufacturer market shares shifted only slightly in 2024. Mercedes remained the top seller (19.6% of all HDVs) but captured less than the 21% of the market it had in 2023. Following behind were MAN with a 14% share, Iveco (13.1%), Volvo (12.8%), Scania (12.4%), DAF (10.1%), and Renault (7.8%).

Heavy trucks

Trucks with a gross vehicle weight above 12 tonnes

In 2024, heavy trucks were 77% of all HDV sales. Out of 275,000 heavy trucks sold, 3,400 (1.2%) were zero-emission vehicles. Sales in the segment contracted by 5% relative to 2023 when 290,000 vehicles were sold. The zero-emission market still grew against the backdrop of this contraction, as the 2,600 zero-emission vehicles sold in 2023 were a 0.9% sales share.

In the fourth quarter of 2024, 940 zero-emission heavy trucks were sold, representing a sales share of 1.5%, roughly the same volume and share as in the last quarter of 2023, when 950 zero-emission heavy trucks were sold (1.4% share).

Volvo Trucks maintained its leading position in the zero-emission heavy truck market in the fourth quarter of 2024, but its 33% share was a drop from its 43.5% share in the previous quarter. Renault trailed closely by selling 32% of all zero-emission heavy trucks and was followed by Mercedes with a 17% share.

Germany continued to lead in sales of zero-emission heavy trucks in the fourth quarter of 2024, with the 300 units sold representing 32% of the market. Just five countries (Germany, France, the Netherlands, Sweden, and Denmark) were responsible for 90% of all zero-emission heavy trucks sales.

Click on the figures to take a closer look at the data

Light and medium trucks

Trucks with a gross vehicle weight between 3.5 tonnes and 12 tonnes

In 2024, light and medium trucks were 13% of all HDV sales. Out of 46,000 light and medium trucks sold, 4,800 (10%) were zero-emission vehicles. The segment contracted by 16% relative to 2023, when 55,000 vehicles were sold. The zero-emission market grew against the backdrop of this contraction, though: In 2023, the 3,500 zero-emission sales were only 6% of the market. In the fourth quarter of 2024, 1,500 zero-emission light and medium trucks were sold, a sales share of 13%. In terms of volume and share, this is more than double the fourth quarter of 2023 when 780 zero-emission light and medium trucks were sold, a share of 6%.

Germany was home to 55% of the zero-emission sales. The same five countries (Germany, France, the Netherlands, Denmark, and Sweden) were home to 88% of all zero-emission light and medium trucks sales. Notably, in the fourth quarter of 2024, zero-emission vehicles were 48% of all light and medium trucks sales in Denmark and 42% in Sweden.

Ford regained its position as the leading seller of zero-emission light and medium trucks. The Ford E-Transit was the most popular zero-emission model in 2024 with 1,800 sold and it was followed by the Iveco eDaily (1,200 sold), the Mercedes eSprinter (560 sold), and the Fiat Ducato (430 sold). Combined, these four models were 83% of all zero-emission light and medium trucks sold in 2024.

Click on the figures to take a closer look at the data

Figure 3.4. Sales of zero-emission light and medium commercial vehicles by Member State in Q4 2024

Buses and coaches

With a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tonnes

In 2024, buses and coaches were 10% of all HDV sales. Out of 35,000 buses and coaches sold, 6,000 (17%) were zero-emission vehicles. The bus and coach market grew by 31% relative to 2023 when 27,000 vehicles were sold. The volume of zero-emission buses and coaches also increased in 2024 relative to 2023, when 4,500 zero-emission vehicles were sold; the sales share remained relatively constant at 17% in 2024 compared with 16% in 2023.

In the fourth quarter of 2024, 2,000 zero-emission buses and coaches were sold, 26% of total sales and an increase in both volume and share compared with the last quarter of 2023, when 1,600 (22% share) were sold. Over 50% of all city buses sold in the fourth quarter of 2024 were battery electric—zero-emission powertrains were more popular than combustion engines for the first time ever. Seven countries (Belgium, Ireland, Latvia, Lithuania, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, and Romania) only sold zero-emission city buses in the fourth quarter of 2024. That same quarter, sales share of zero-emission interurban buses and coaches increased to 6%, largely driven by a surge in electric minibuses sold by Iveco, Mercedes, and Ford.

Click on the figures to take a closer look at the data

Technology focus: Energy efficiency technology deployment

Manufacturers are pursuing various strategies to reduce the carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions of their new HDVs, and all major manufacturers recently launched new technology packages that benefit the energy efficiency of both conventional and zero-emission vehicles. These include improvements in the aerodynamic design of truck cabins, advanced driver assistance systems (ADAS), lightweighting of various vehicle components, and, for conventional vehicles, more efficient engines and transmissions. All combined, fuel savings of up to 15% have been reported in the new generation of long-haul tractor-trailers compared with 2020-2021 trucks.

New rules on truck cabin design implemented in 2021 allowed all major manufacturers to launch new, elongated truck cabins with significantly improved aerodynamics and other features such as air fenders, aero seals, under hood aerodynamic design improvement (closing gaps between components), side skirts, and improved windscreen design. Another innovation driven by the new safety requirements is the introduction of camera mirrors to replace traditional side mirrors; this reduces blind spots for increased safety and considerably reduces air drag on the side of the cabin. Improved aerodynamics have been reported to result in up to 5% fuel savings.

ADAS have also become more widespread in the past few years. ADAS deliver up to 5% fuel savings compared with vehicles that are not equipped with the technology. Most importantly, predictive cruise control (PCC) adjusts the speed of the vehicle to gain momentum as it approaches hills, which reduces the impacts of positive road gradients on fuel consumption. Recent improvements in PCC algorithms were reported to deliver further 2% fuel savings. For conventional vehicles, through more efficient combustion, engine lightweighting, and gearbox automation and increased rear axle ratio enabling engine downspeeding, fuel savings of up to 8% have been reported.

Definitions, data sources, methodology, and assumptions

A zero-emission vehicle is any vehicle whose propulsion system produces zero combustion emissions, such as a dedicated battery electric, fuel-cell electric, or other motor that is not driven by combustion.

A heavy-duty vehicle is a commercial vehicle, intended for the transport of passengers or freight, with a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tonnes.

A heavy truck is a truck with a gross vehicle weight above 12 tonnes.

A light and medium commercial vehicle is a truck or van with a gross vehicle weight between 3.5–12 tonnes.

A city bus is a passenger vehicle with a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tonnes that is used exclusively in urban environments.

An interurban bus is a passenger vehicle with a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tonnes that is used in both urban and regional environments.

A coach is a passenger vehicle with a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tonnes that is used exclusively in regional environments.

All data are supplied by Dataforce.

The post Race to Zero: European Heavy-Duty Vehicle Market Development Quarterly (January–December 2024) appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.