United States & Canada - International Council on Clean Transportation https://theicct.org/region/united-states-canada/ Independent research to benefit public health and mitigate climate change Tue, 03 Jun 2025 20:46:08 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.7.1 https://theicct.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/01/favicon-150x150.png United States & Canada - International Council on Clean Transportation https://theicct.org/region/united-states-canada/ 32 32 Real-world NOX emissions and health impacts from tampered and malfunctioning heavy-duty vehicles in Alberta, Canada https://theicct.org/publication/rw-nox-emissions-and-health-impacts-from-tampered-and-malfunctioning-hdv-alberta-canada-jun25/ Wed, 04 Jun 2025 16:00:20 +0000 https://theicct.org/?post_type=publication&p=63664 Models the potential rates of tampering or malfunction across the heavy-duty fleet in Alberta, Canada, and quantifies the subsequent health impacts.

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Nearly half of Alberta’s population lives within one kilometer of a high-traffic roadway, exposing residents to harmful toxins like nitrogen oxides (NOx) and particulate matter (PM), which are often linked to adverse health impacts and premature deaths.

A new study from the TRUE Initiative, for which ICCT serves as technical partner, estimated the rates of tampered or malfunctioning heavy-duty vehicles based on real-world emissions testing data. Researchers then modeled the potential impact these excess pollutants have on public health.

Key findings include:

  • 38% of model year 2010–2015 tractor trucks show evidence of tampering or malfunction. Despite making up less than one quarter of the fleet, this group of vehicles is responsible for nearly half of Alberta’s total NOx emissions from tractor trucks.
  • By 2035, tampered or malfunctioning vehicles are estimated to increase total NOx emissions by 145% compared with a properly functioning fleet. The real-world prevalence of these vehicles is up to 2.75 times worse than originally forecasted in a 2022 modeling study.
  • An estimated CA$5.4 billion in health damages for Alberta communities between 2024 and 2035, including 419 premature deaths. Assuming no policy action is taken, damages this year alone would amount to CA$358 million.

To combat the public health impacts of these excess emissions, the TRUE Initiative recommends several policy solutions, including the adoption of federal anti-tampering legislation, the implementation of a provincial inspection program, and the deployment of roadside monitoring technology to identify high-emitting vehicles.

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Least-cost truck charging infrastructure to benefit all stakeholders https://theicct.org/least-cost-truck-charging-infrastructure-to-benefit-all-stakeholders-apr25/ Fri, 25 Apr 2025 18:57:04 +0000 https://theicct.org/?p=60755 Transparency and data around costs for electric truck charging infrastructure can help utility regulators and truck fleets collaborate and streamline deployment of least-cost solutions.

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Energy and vehicle regulators in Massachusetts and California have two things in common: (1) both require manufacturers to sell an increasing number of zero-emission trucks to comply with the Advanced Clean Trucks regulation and (2) both have average residential electricity rates nearly 90% higher than the national average. So, there’s a tension. While truck manufacturers assert that utilities aren’t building charging infrastructure fast enough, greater scrutiny of electric bills is forcing sometimes difficult conversations about how to fund critical investments.

A general rate case proceeding for Southern California Edison illustrates this well. Southern California Edison serves the region that’ll have the highest demand for truck charging of any in the United States by 2030, according to the ICCT’s estimates. State policy requires state and local fleets to purchase 100% zero-emission vehicles by 2027, transit agencies to purchase 100% zero-emission buses by 2029, and as much as 75% zero-emission truck sales by 2035, depending on the vehicle group. The utility has proposed that it proactively invest in the grid to serve these future transportation electrification loads, but consumer advocates represented by the Public Advocates Office of the California Public Utilities Commission and The Utility Reform Network (TURN) oppose the proposal. These groups question the methodology used to estimate heavy-duty vehicle charging needs and call on the California Public Utilities Commission to reject spending proposals related to truck electrification.

We think common ground exists between those who need truck charging infrastructure and those who want to keep utility rates down. It lives at the intersection of information that both groups need to achieve their goals. This is information about the costs of truck charging infrastructure, the options that exist to lower those costs, and the kinds of commitments utilities can make to energize the most charging infrastructure at the lowest cost.

​​​To explore this, the ICCT contracted with Black & Veatch (BV), an electric vehicle charging and utility engineering and construction firm. The company developed a prototype public corridor charging facility based on its industry knowledge and estimated the costs of designing and constructing truck charging facilities. For example, BV provided costs for a prototypical public corridor charging facility and Figure 1 is a schematic of the site design. This approximately 8-acre facility with a combined nameplate capacity of 15.6 MW has thirty pull-in spots served by twenty 240-kW dual-port chargers and ten 480-kW single-port chargers, as well as five pull-through stalls each served by a 1 MW charger.

Figure 1. Layout of corridor charging facility prototype by Black & Veatch

Per BV’s estimates, the total cost of this prototype is approximately $15 million. Front-of-the-meter costs, for which the electric utility ratepayers are typically responsible, are estimated to be around 19% of total project costs. These costs include planning, design, land acquisition, and installation of grid components owned by electric utilities, such as substations, transformers, and feeder lines up to the electric meter (Figure 2). Behind-the-meter costs, which are typically the responsibility of customers (in this case, the charging service operators), are the remaining 81% in BV’s estimates. These include items such as project management and design, demolition, site work, electrical work, equipment procurement, and installation of electric panels, power cabinets, conduits, and charging dispensers.

Figure 2. Distinction between front-of-the-meter and behind-the-meter infrastructure and scope of analysis

Major distribution grid upgrades cost more than $10 ​​million—that alone is the cost of a 115 kV greenfield substation—and take years to build. That’s a large front-of-the-meter cost and it’s much different in a project that only requires adding a substation bank to an existing substation, as that costs the utility only around $1.5 million. For sites like the prototype in Figure 1, if they can access existing substation capacity, that’s a clear opportunity for lower costs. Utilities can facilitate buildout in these locations by proactively communicating to potential commercial charging customers where substation capacity already exists and easing the process for them to utilize it.

This is important because the truck industry is investing in electrification. Daimler, Volvo, and Cummins are constructing a 21 GWh battery production facility in Mississippi (launch date in 2027) and Tesla is building a 50,000-unit Semi tractor factory in Nevada (to come online in 2026). New businesses providing charging services to electric trucks that have launched in just the last 5 years include WattEV, Forum Mobility, Terawatt Infrastructure, Greenlane, Voltera, EV Realty, and Zeem Solutions. And public policies at the local, state, and federal levels are providing incentives and setting requirements for fleets to transition to zero-emission technologies.

Utility regulators can help meet the needs of both truck charging developers and utility ratepayers by establishing common ground for a discussion about what it takes to meet the needs of truck charging facilities, and that requires transparency and data about ​​costs. By engaging with data showing what these facilities would likely cost, options for minimizing the costs ultimately shouldered by ratepayers, and actions that streamline the deployment of least-cost solutions, all stakeholders can come away confident that their interests have been served.

Authors

Yihao Xie
Senior Researcher

 

Ray Minjares
Heavy-Duty Vehicles Program Director, Global / San Francisco Managing Director

Related Reading

Near-term infrastructure deployment to support zero-emission medium- and heavy-duty vehicles in the United States

This paper assesses the near-term charging and refueling infrastructure needs for Class 4-8 medium- and heavy-duty vehicles at the national and sub-national levels.

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U.S. charging infrastructure deployment through 2024 https://theicct.org/publication/us-charging-infrastructure-deployment-through-2024-apr25/ Thu, 24 Apr 2025 15:30:38 +0000 https://theicct.org/?post_type=publication&p=60197 This market spotlight highlights the growth, distribution patterns, and investments of non-home electric vehicle chargers in the United States through 2024.

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Overview

Approximately 204,000 public chargers and publicly accessible workplace chargers for light-duty vehicles had been deployed across the United States as of the end of 2024. From 2019 to 2024, the deployment rate of this non-home charging infrastructure for light-duty electric vehicles (EVs) grew about 25% annually. This is roughly equivalent to estimates of the growth rate needed in annual charging deployment to support continued expansion of the EV market. Charging deployment has not been uniform across the United States, and more chargers have been deployed in states with the most EV sales. Publicly announced investments in charging infrastructure from retailers, automakers, and charging providers sum up to 164,000 new DC fast chargers and 1.5 million new Level 2 chargers in the years ahead. These investments cover a substantial share of the chargers that we estimate will be needed by 2030.

Non-home charger deployment

About 6.3 million light-duty EVs had been sold and 204,000 non-home chargers deployed across the United States by the end of 2024 (Figure 1). In 2024, new EV sales surpassed 1.5 million, representing about 10% of all new light-duty vehicles sold in the United States. In 2024, more than 40,000 new non-home chargers were deployed, which was more than any other year. From 2019 to 2024, the rate of charging infrastructure deployment grew about 25% annually, which is roughly equivalent to estimates of the annual charging deployment growth rate needed to support continued EV market growth to 55 million electric vehicles on U.S. roads in 2032.

Total non-home charging deployment increased from 151,000 in June 2023 to 204,000 in 2024, a 35% increase. In that time span, the number of Level 2 chargers went from about 118,000 to 153,000, a 29% increase, and DC fast chargers increased from about 33,000 to 51,000, a 56% increase.

Figure 1. Cumulative U.S. sales of light-duty electric vehicles and deployment of non-home chargers, 2011 through 2024

Charger deployment by state

Charging deployment has not been uniform across the United States, and a larger number of chargers have been deployed in the states with the most EV sales (Figure 2.1). The ratio of non-home chargers per million residents ranges from 164 (Louisiana) to 1,738 (Vermont). The top 10 states in per capita charging deployment are Vermont, the District of Columbia, California, Massachusetts, Colorado, Connecticut, Washington, Maine, Oregon, and Maryland. Vermont, the District of Columbia, California, Colorado, Washington, Oregon, and Maryland are also in the top 10 in terms of EV market share.

The ratio of EVs to non-home chargers ranges from about 9 to about 47, with an average of 22 (Figure 2.2). Ratios vary significantly by locale and are dependent on various factors including the prevalence of home charging access, charger utilization, and the rated power of chargers.

Figure 2.1. Non-home chargers per million residents by state in 2024

Figure 2.2. Electric vehicles per non-home charger by state in 2024

Future charging investment

Publicly available announcements from retailers, automakers, and charging providers sum up to 164,000 new DC fast chargers and 1.5 million new Level 2 chargers for light-duty vehicles in the years ahead. These investments cover a substantial share of the chargers we estimate will be needed by 2030—about 182% of the needed DC fast chargers and about 62% of the needed Level 2 chargers (Figure 3). In terms of total charging capacity, this amount of charging represents 96% of non-home charging capacity needed in 2030. Potential additional charging deployments announced by the federal government, state authorities, or utilities (i.e., the hatched portions of the bar chart) could provide up to 47,000 more DC fast chargers and 579,000 more Level 2 chargers, although it is unclear to what extent these announcements overlap with announcements from private stakeholders. In addition, other non-disclosed future charging investments would further add to the charging infrastructure network.

Figure 3. Non-home EV chargers needed by 2030 compared with announced deployments

Terminology and data sources

An electric vehicle in this spotlight refers to light-duty vehicles with propulsion powered solely or mostly by electric motors.  

A Level 2 charger is a power supply device that provides alternating current (AC) electricity to electric vehicles at a rated power level between 3 kW and 19 kW. 

A DC fast charger (DCFC) is a power supply device that provides direct current (DC) electricity to electric vehicles at a rated power level of 50 kW or above. 

NEVI plans are the deployment plans developed by each state for spending federal funds from the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) Formula Program to build charging networks in their states. 

ZEV states are the states that have adopted any part of California’s regulations on zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs). These regulations include a suite of policies designed to increase sales of ZEVs and to support their wide-scale adoption and use. This program includes Advanced Clean Cars II, which requires that 100% of new light-duty vehicle sales are zero-emission by 2035. The Clean Air Act allows for other states to adopt California’s ZEV regulations. Non-ZEV states are those that have not adopted California’s ZEV regulations. 

Data on electric vehicle sales: Argonne National Laboratory, Light-Duty Electric Drive Vehicles Monthly Sales Updates – Historical Data, accessed February 28, 2025, https://www.anl.gov/esia/reference/light-duty-electric-drive-vehicles-monthly-sales-updates-historical-data. 

Data on charging infrastructure: U.S. Department of Energy Alternative Fuels Data Center, Alternative Fueling Station Locator, accessed February 17, 2025, https://afdc.energy.gov/stations#/find/nearest?country=US. 

Data on state-level electric vehicle market shares: Atlas Public Policy’s EV Hub, EV Market Dashboard (2025), https://www.atlasevhub.com/market-data/ev-market-dashboard/. 

Findings on future charging infrastructure needs compared with announced charging infrastructure deployment and historical charging infrastructure growth: Logan Pierce and Peter Slowik, Assessment of U.S. electric vehicle charging needs and announced deployments through 2032 (Internation Council on Clean Transportation, 2024), https://theicct.org/publication/assessment-of-us-ev-charging-needs-and-announced-deployment-through-2032-mar24/ 

 

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U.S. multi-pollutant emissions standards for model years 2027 and later light-duty and medium-duty vehicles https://theicct.org/publication/us-multi-pollutant-emissions-standards-for-model-years-2027-and-later-ldv-mdv-apr25/ Wed, 09 Apr 2025 04:01:00 +0000 https://theicct.org/?post_type=publication&p=58116 This policy update explores the U.S. multi-pollutant emissions standards for model years 2027 and later, which establish new standards for light-duty and medium-duty vehicles.

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The U.S. multi-pollutant emissions standards for model years 2027 and later apply to light-duty vehicles (LDVs) and medium-duty vehicles (MDVs) and require tailpipe carbon dioxide (CO2) emission reductions (in grams per mile, g/mi) that lower the industry-wide average for LDVs by 50% and for MDVs by 44%, both compared with the MY 2026 standards. Additionally, the rule establishes a new Tier 4 criteria pollutant emissions standard for non-methane organic gases (NMOG), nitrogen oxides (NOx), particulate matter (PM), and other criteria pollutants and their precursors. The Environmental Protection Agency projects the standards will lead to up to $13 billion in annualized health benefits and $72 billion in annualized climate benefits by 2055.

Figure. Annualized costs, benefits, and fuel savings of the multi-pollutant rule, 2027 through 2055

The standards for LDVs and MDVs are performance-based. Vehicle manufacturers are free to select from an array of clean vehicle technologies, and compliance does not require selling any particular technology.

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Electric vehicles could create hundreds of thousands of new American jobs—if policies hold https://theicct.org/evs-could-create-hundreds-of-thousands-of-jobs-in-the-us-if-policies-hold-mar25/ Fri, 14 Mar 2025 19:03:28 +0000 https://theicct.org/?p=57532 The transition to electric vehicles could result in a net increase in jobs across the automotive industry.

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While there remains great momentum behind developing domestic supply chains to produce electric vehicles (EVs) in the United States, any new steps to roll back supporting policies risk forfeiting the thousands of jobs that could be gained. As just one example, we estimate that if funding for the National Electric Vehicle Infrastructure (NEVI) program is eliminated (it was paused earlier this month), 13,000 charging infrastructure jobs could fail to materialize. That’s based on announced NEVI charging deployment and the ratio of jobs per charger.

For U.S. officials wanting to increase auto manufacturing jobs, following through on policies that incentivize investment in the United States, like those in the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022, is the best way to achieve it. Together with the billions of dollars of new investment in clean energy projects across the United States, these policies are expected to create hundreds of thousands of jobs.

Like many new technologies, EVs are vulnerable to being smeared as “job killers.” Don’t believe it. Multiple studies have found that EVs require more labor hours to build than internal combustion engine vehicles, primarily due to battery assembly and production. Right now, most automakers in the United States outsource production of EV powertrain components like high-voltage batteries to foreign suppliers; this is what’s behind claims that EVs could require approximately 30% fewer hours and to build. However, if automakers bring that battery production in house and onshore the production of EV powertrain components, the EV transition could lead to more auto manufacturing jobs than there are today.

Analysis from FEV Consulting found that with high levels of vertical integration, EVs would mean more labor in auto manufacturing. Additionally, research from the Economic Policy Institute put things in sharp relief by highlighting two distinctly different futures: It estimated an increase of more than 150,000 jobs in the United States by 2030 as the auto industry transitions toward EVs if there is greater domestic manufacturing of vehicles and EV parts and if sales of American-made vehicles increase. In an alternate future of policy inaction where EV parts and sales are increasingly reliant on imports, however, the study projected job losses in the tens of thousands as EV sales continue to grow.

Indeed, there’s a big opportunity for new domestic industries in battery production and charging infrastructure. Demand for EVs will drive demand for batteries, and ICCT research estimated that this could create up to 125,000 new jobs in the United States in battery manufacturing, battery component manufacturing, and battery recycling by 2032. This is a conservative estimate that does not account for any jobs upstream of battery production and assembly, such as in construction, mining, material extraction, and refining. As of September 2023, we had already identified 15 lithium-ion battery material production plants that extract or process raw materials in Michigan, 11 in Tennessee, seven in Indiana, seven in Texas, six in Kentucky, six in Ohio, and many more across the country. More facilities that extract or process lithium and other raw battery materials can be expected to open if the industry continues to expand, and jobs in such plants are over and above the jobs estimated for battery manufacture and recycling.

Beyond this, EVs will require building a nationwide network of charging infrastructure at homes, workplaces, and various public locations. This will create new jobs in charger assembly, electrical installation, charging software maintenance and repair, and planning and design related to siting chargers. ICCT research estimated that demand for light-duty EV charging infrastructure could create about 140,000 jobs by 2032, with potentially more jobs to come after that.

The Inflation Reduction Act of 2022 provides incentives for domestic production of EV components by offering tax credits for consumers who purchase and automakers that build EVs in the United States. With these in place, automakers are indeed making steps to vertically integrate EV production. Additionally, in September 2024, the U.S. Department of Energy announced more than $3 billion in federal investment in this sector that could create over 12,000 jobs. We’re already seeing signs of these jobs as private companies have announced more than 230,000 EV-related jobs as of February 2025.

We’re talking about a lot of good jobs—potentially. Thousands of positions are only likely to materialize if existing policies are brought to fruition. If policies are instead weakened or eliminated, there’s a very real risk that job gains will not be realized.

Authors

Logan Pierce
Associate Researcher

Jen Callahan
Managing Editor

Related Publications

Powering the future: Assessment of U.S. light-duty vehicle battery manufacturing jobs by 2032

The growing U.S. battery industry for light-duty electric vehicles is projected to create 84,000 to 125,000 domestic jobs by 2032.

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Challenges and opportunities for the zero-emission vehicle transition in rural regions https://theicct.org/publication/challenges-and-opportunities-for-the-zero-emission-vehicle-transition-in-rural-regions-mar25/ Thu, 06 Mar 2025 05:01:14 +0000 https://theicct.org/?post_type=publication&p=57218 Analyzes ZEV uptake in urban and rural regions within Germany and New York state and offers insights from interviews with rural BEV users.

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As the transition to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs) accelerates around the world, there are concerns about an uneven pace across different equity dimensions, including between urban and rural regions. This new analysis from the ZEV Alliance offers insights into the extent of rural-urban disparities in battery-electric vehicle (BEV) uptake within regions in Germany and the state of New York in the United States.

In Germany, rural regions are outperforming urban regions, with 63% of rural regions having a battery electric vehicle (BEV) registration share above the country average compared with 56% of urban regions. However, the opposite is true in New York state. There, rural counties are underperforming with none above the state average compared with 36% of urban regions above the state average.

Figure. Share of total battery electric passenger car registrations in 2023 by rural, intermediate, and urban regions equal to or above and below the German and New York state average

The analysis finds evidence of varying patterns and degrees of association between urbanization, income, and public charging deployment and urban-rural disparities in BEV uptake.

This paper also provides insights from real-world rural BEV users, all of whom had almost entirely positives experiences using a BEV. Interviewees emphasized that a lack of awareness is a key barrier to greater adoption, and that awareness-building efforts that entail myth-busting but also focus on the suitability of BEVs and their cost-saving potential could help accelerate uptake. Finally, the paper catalogs examples of policies to increase awareness and overcome barriers to ZEV adoption in rural areas across ZEV Alliance jurisdictions.

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Fuel-cycle greenhouse gas emissions from a 40-tonne tractor-trailer for diesel and compressed natural gas (CNG) https://theicct.org/viz-fuel-cycle-ghg-emissions-from-a-40-tonne-tractor-trailer-for-diesel-and-compressed-natural-gas-cng-jan25/ Fri, 28 Feb 2025 16:30:44 +0000 https://theicct.org/?p=57005 Note: Fossil CNG results are estimated using GREET 2023 and assumptions therein for CNG production and combustion in dedicated CNG-fueled vehicles using a 100-year global warming potential for greenhouse gases. 

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Note: Fossil CNG results are estimated using GREET 2023 and assumptions therein for CNG production and combustion in dedicated CNG-fueled vehicles using a 100-year global warming potential for greenhouse gases. 

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Even as ICAO’s standards kicked in starting 2020, we have seen fuel burn improvements stagnate. Stricter standards are needed to drive progress. https://theicct.org/viz-icaos-standards-starting-2020-feb25/ Fri, 28 Feb 2025 16:25:43 +0000 https://theicct.org/?p=57001 The post Even as ICAO’s standards kicked in starting 2020, we have seen fuel burn improvements stagnate. Stricter standards are needed to drive progress. appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

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Toward greener freight: Overview of inland waterway transportation in the United States https://theicct.org/publication/toward-greener-freight-inland-waterway-transportation-us-feb25/ Mon, 24 Feb 2025 20:20:29 +0000 https://theicct.org/?post_type=publication&p=56514 This brief looks at the 25,000-mile U.S. network for waterborne transportation and its potential for lowering freight-related emissions.

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Inland Waterway Transport (IWT) moves about 8% of all U.S. freight each year, making it a vital conduit for both domestic and international trade. The network connects industrial and agricultural sectors with 25,000 miles of navigable waterways and channels. IWT has an advantage in shipping capacity, especially for bulk and liquid cargo. Additionally, IWT emits fewer air pollutants and has a smaller carbon footprint on an energy-equivalent basis than road and rail transport.

Figure. Major U.S inland waterways and ton-miles of freight transported in 2022

This brief provides an overview of inland waterway freight transportation development in the United States with a focus on relationships between commodity market and economic growth, IWT’s role in intermodal transportation, key policy and regulatory frameworks, challenges and opportunities ion IWT decarbonization in the United States.

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Toward healthy competition in the European public charging market: Stakeholder dynamics and pricing trends https://theicct.org/publication/toward-healthy-competition-eu-public-charging-market-feb25/ Wed, 19 Feb 2025 05:04:39 +0000 https://theicct.org/?post_type=publication&p=56115 Assesses the public charging infrastructure market across Europe in terms of key players, concentration, and pricing with a few comparison points in the United States and Canada.

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The public charging infrastructure market in Europe is undergoing rapid development, driven by the growing adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and the push for sustainable transportation solutions. This ZEV Alliance report aims to answer three main questions to better understand how charge point operator (CPO) market concentration is shaping the EV public charging market:

  1. Who are the key players in the European public EV charging infrastructure market and how does the European market compare to that of North America?
  2. What are the CPO market concentration levels in Europe and North America, and do they cause competition concerns?
  3. How do these market players set prices for public EV charging, and is there a correlation with their market coverage?

First, the European public charging market consists of a vast number of CPOs and mobility service providers (MSPs). The study found over 2,000 CPOs offering AC charging, more than 1,000 offering DC charging, and about 240 MSPs in total. Compared to the United States and Canada, which have mostly pure players, Europe’s leading CPOs are mostly sector-leaping players, particularly oil and gas companies and electric utilities, which come with a competitive advantage over pure players.

Second, the rise in EV adoption over recent years has not resulted in consistent market concentration trends across Europe. The leading AC CPO in 42% of European NUTS 3 regions had a market share exceeding 40%, which the German Competition Authority considers a threshold for market dominance. This number increases to 50% in the Netherlands for the AC market and 52% in Poland for the DC market. Ongoing monitoring could provide regulators with the necessary information to identify any potential competition concerns.

Finally, reflective of recent AFIR requirements, billing per recharged energy (kWh) is dominant among European EV public charging rates, and, while ad hoc charging prices are generally similar to MSP prices excluding subscription costs, once taken into account, average MSP prices tended to be highest among the pricing models analyzed. Lastly, as of now, market dominance by one CPO has not had a clear impact on ad hoc pricing.

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