Summary

The market for zero-emission heavy-duty vehicles (HDVs) took to a strong start in the first quarter (Q1) of 2025. While the overall market for HDVs fell by 20% compared with Q1 2024, sales of zero-emission HDVs rose to 4,100 vehicles, up 45% from the 2,800 vehicles sold in Q1 2024. Driving this was the growth in sales of light and medium trucks and, to a lesser extent, the bus and coach segments. The share of zero-emission vehicles among all light and medium trucks sold rose to an all-time high of 18% with 1,700 vehicles sold in Q1 2025; that was a doubling of both sales share and absolute sales from Q1 2024, when the sales share was 9% and 930 zero-emission vehicles were sold. Most of this increase was driven by sales in the Netherlands, where over 80% of light and medium trucks sold were electric.

Growth in the sales of zero-emission heavy trucks was less pronounced: The 850 vehicles sold were 1.5% of the market in Q1 2025, up marginally from 750 vehicles sold and a 1.0% sales share in Q1 2024. This was largely due to an increase in sales in France, where the sales share rose from 0.7% to 2.2% over the same period. Starting in July 2025, carbon dioxide reduction targets of 15% will apply to most new heavy trucks sold in the EU-27; it is possible that sales of zero-emission heavy trucks may increase in Q3 to comply. These targets will not apply to new light and medium trucks or to buses and coaches until 2030.

Overall market developments

In Q1 2025, the HDV market contracted fairly significantly to 75,000 vehicles sold, down from 95,000 in Q1 2024. This continued an overall downward trajectory seen since the start of 2024. Sales fell in all but four countries—Bulgaria, Greece, Lithuania, and Portugal—and the steepest drop was in sales of heavy trucks (23% decrease compared with the first quarter of 2024), followed by light and medium trucks (16% decrease), and buses and coaches (7% decrease).

Daimler Truck was hit the hardest by this market contraction, with sales down 34% in Q1 2025 relative to Q1 2024, and it was followed by Scania (28% decrease) and MAN (27% decrease). Only Renault Trucks, the smallest of Europe’s seven largest HDV manufacturers, saw an increase in its sales, which rose 2% compared with Q1 2024.

Despite these contractions, the market share of the major manufacturers remained mostly unchanged. Mercedes was the top seller in Q1 2025 (18% of all HDV sales) and was followed by Volvo and MAN (both 14%), Iveco (13%), Scania (12%), DAF (10%), and Renault (9%). Shares of manufacturers outside of the seven main manufacturers, which had been on an overall rise since the beginning of last year, fell to 13% in Q1 2025, down from 15% in Q4 2024.

Figure 1.1 Market share by country

Figure 1.2. Manufacturer market share by vehicle segment in Q1 2025, with parentheses denoting changes in shares in percentage points relative to Q1 2024

Heavy trucks

Trucks with a gross vehicle weight above 12 tonnes

In Q1 2025, heavy trucks accounted for 77% of all HDV sales. Out of 58,000 heavy trucks sold, 850 were zero-emission vehicles and that was a share of 1.5%. This marked a rise compared with the 1% share sold in Q1 2024, but no change compared with Q4 2024, which also had a 1.5% share. Volvo and Renault, the two brands of the Volvo Group, continued to dominate the zero-emission market by volume. They comprised a combined 57% share of all zero-emission heavy truck sales and MAN jumped to third place with a 15% sales share following the launch of its eTGX model, a tractor-trailer. Sales of zero-emission heavy trucks have yet to take off to the same extent for Mercedes, which has long been the largest HDV manufacturer in Europe by volume; it sold less than 100 of the European Union’s zero-emission heavy trucks (10% sales share, largely sales of its eActros) despite holding an 18% share of the conventional market.

Germany continued to lead in sales of zero-emission heavy trucks in Q1 2025: It held 35% of the market with 300 units sold. Just four countries (Germany, France, the Netherlands, and Sweden) were responsible for 85% of all zero-emission heavy trucks sales. Sweden had the highest sales share of zero-emission heavy trucks at 8.7% and was followed by the Netherlands at 6.0% and Denmark at 4.5%.

Click on the figures to take a closer look at the data

Figure 2.1. Sales of heavy trucks by powertrain in Q1 2025

Figure 2.2. Historic sales of zero-emission heavy trucks

Figure 2.3. Sales of zero-emission heavy trucks by configuration and powertrain in Q1 2025

Figure 2.4. Sales of zero-emission heavy trucks by share of Member State in Q1 2025

Figure 2.5. Shares of heavy trucks by powertrain and manufacturer in Q1 2025

Table 1. Sales of zero-emission heavy trucks in the EU-27, with sales shares in parentheses

Light and medium trucks

Trucks with a gross vehicle weight between 3.5 tonnes and 12 tonnes

In Q1 2025, light and medium trucks were 12% of all HDV sales. Of the 9,300 light and medium trucks sold, 1,700 (18%) were zero-emission. This marked a nearly twofold increase over Q1 2024, when 930 (8%) of the trucks sold were zero-emission. Ford continues to be the driving force behind the rise in the zero-emission sales and comprised nearly one-third of all sales in Q1 2025. Over 80% of all the vehicles manufactured by Ford for the European market were zero-emission, and most of these were its E-Transit model. Sales of the Mercedes eSprinter have also been on the rise and reached 290 vehicles in Q1 2025, up from 19 vehicles sold in Q1 2024.

Sales of zero-emission light and medium trucks in the Netherlands rose rapidly in Q1 2025, with 510 zero-emission vehicles sold; that was 83% of all light and medium trucks sold and nearly three times higher than the total sold in all of 2024. The rise is likely driven by the introduction of zero-emission zones that have applied in 15 municipalities since the start of 2025. All new vans and trucks registered from the start of 2025 entering these zones must be zero-emission. Sales in most other countries remained stagnant, except in Italy, where the share for zero-emission vehicles reached 17% in Q1 2025, up from 6% in Q1 2024. The Netherlands had the highest sales share of zero-emission light and medium trucks and was followed by Denmark (54%) and Sweden (45%)

Click on the figures to take a closer look at the data

Figure 3.1. Sales of light and medium trucks by powertrain in Q1 2025

Figure 3.2. Historic sales of zero-emission light and medium trucks

Figure 3.3. Sales of zero-emission light and medium trucks by configuration and powertrain in Q1 2025

Figure 3.4. Sales of zero-emission light and medium commercial vehicles by Member State in Q1 2025

Figure 3.5. Shares of light and medium trucks by powertrain and manufacturer in Q1 2025

Table 2. Sales of zero-emission light and medium trucks in EU-27 countries, with sales shares in parentheses

Buses and coaches

With a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tonnes

Buses and coaches were 11% of all HDV sales in Q1 2025. Of the 8,300 buses sold, 1,600 were zero-emission vehicles, 19% of total sales; that was up from the 1,100 sales, a 12% share, in Q1 2024. Battery electric city buses were 46% of all city bus registrations in Q1 2025, a slight drop from 52% in Q1 2024 but still above the share of diesel city buses sold.

Mercedes remained the top-selling manufacturer of zero-emission buses and coaches by selling 310 units of its eCitaro and eSprinter models; that was 19% of all sales. MAN jumped into a close second place with an 18% market share that was achieved exclusively through sales of its MAN Lions City model.
Shares of zero-emission buses and coaches have been rising across all Member States and were the highest in Sweden (67%), Romania (55%), and the Netherlands (54%). For city buses, only zero-emission sales were recorded in Q1 2025 in Romania, Latvia, Hungary, and Denmark, and the sales share was above 50% in Poland, Greece, the Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden, Lithuania, and Luxembourg.

Click on the figures to take a closer look at the data

Figure 4.1. Sales of city buses (top) and interurban buses and coaches (bottom) by powertrain in Q1 2025

Figure 4.2. Historic sales of zero-emission buses and coaches

Figure 4.3. Sales of city buses by Member State and powertrain

Figure 4.4. Sales of city buses by powertrain and Member State in Q1 2025

Figure 4.3. Shares of all buses and coaches by powertrain and manufacturer in Q1 2025

Table 3. Sales of zero-emission buses and coaches in
EU-27 countries, with sales shares in parentheses

Definitions, data sources, methodology, and assumptions

A zero-emission vehicle is any vehicle whose propulsion system produces zero combustion emissions, such as a dedicated battery electric, fuel cell-electric, or other motor that is not driven by combustion.

A heavy-duty vehicle is a commercial vehicle, intended for the transport of passengers or freight, with a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tonnes.

A heavy truck is a truck with a gross vehicle weight above 12 tonnes.

A light and medium commercial vehicle is a truck or van with a gross vehicle weight between 3.5 and 12 tonnes.

A city bus is a passenger vehicle with a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tonnes that is used exclusively in urban environments.

An interurban bus is a passenger vehicle with a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tonnes that is used in both urban and regional environments.

A coach is a passenger vehicle with a gross vehicle weight above 3.5 tonnes that is used exclusively in regional environments.

All data are supplied by Dataforce.

The post European Heavy Duty Vehicle Market Development Quarterly (January – March 2025) appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

Figure 1. Share of battery electric in new passenger car registrations in Europe

Figure 2. Average CO₂ emissions of manufacturer pools and individual manufacturers compared with estimated 2025-2027 targets, 2025 YTD

Note: Includes compliance credits. All CO₂ values are estimates according to the Worldwide harmonized Light vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP). Only manufacturer pools and individual manufacturers with at least 1% market share YTD are shown. See the section on definitions, data sources, methodology, and assumptions for more.

Passenger car registrations by country

Looking at the major European markets, total passenger car registrations in France, Belgium, and the Netherlands fell 6%, 5%, and 4%, respectively, in April 2025 compared with April 2024, and Italy surpassed France in market size. New registrations increased 16% in Austria, 10% in Sweden, and 9% in Czechia compared with April 2024. Combined BEV and PHEV market shares held steady at 24% in Europe YTD in 2025. Norway (96%), Denmark (68%), Sweden (59%), and the Netherlands (53%) all had combined shares above 50%, and Belgium (41%), Austria (30%), and Germany (27%) also recorded combined BEV and PHEV market shares above the average for Europe. Among the largest markets, the highest increase in BEV registrations occurred in Italy, Czechia, and Poland, where registrations increased 110%, 109%, and 103%, respectively, in April 2025 compared with April 2024; registrations in France and the Netherlands remained similar to April 2024. In Germany, BEV registrations continue to rise, with over 45,500 BEVs registered in April, a market share of 19%. As Europe’s largest market, Germany’s 54% increase in total BEVs registered over April 2024 is noteworthy. Registrations of PHEVs increased the most in Poland (+125%) in April 2025 compared with April 2024 and HEV registrations increased the most in Austria (+79%). Shares of MHEVs were the highest in Italy (31%) and Poland (29%) in April, and they are gaining popularity in Sweden, Austria, and France, where registrations increased 55%, 51%, and 50%, respectively, in April 2025 compared with April 2024.
Figure 3. Share of plug-in hybrid and battery electric passenger cars by country, including information on market size (total new car registrations)

Note: “Other” includes EEA countries not individually highlighted in the figure, except for Bulgaria, Liechtenstein, and Malta.

Table 4. New passenger car registrations by country

Table 5. New battery electric, plug-in hybrid, hybrid, and mild hybrid passenger car registrations by country

Table 6. Share of new battery electric, plug-in hybrid, full hybrid, and mild hybrid passenger cars by country

PASSENGER CAR REGISTRATIONS BY OWNER

Private cars made up over 40% of new registrations in Europe in 2024, and these were followed by company fleets with 36%, and then car dealers and manufacturers and short-term rentals, which made up 14% and 9% of the total registrations, respectively. Short-term rental registrations fluctuated more than other owner types; they ranged from nearly 13% of sales in May 2024 to only 5% in October 2024. In March 2025, the split of new registrations by owner type largely mirrored that of March 2024.

Figure 4 New passenger car registrations by owner for 19 select European countries

Spotlight: Spain

In Spain, registrations of new BEVs and PHEVs are showing strong growth in 2025, with YTD sales up 55% compared with the same period in 2024. Total new passenger car registrations YTD increased by 13% over the same period in 2024. This growth is partly driven by a surge in vehicle sales in the Valencian Community, backed by the Spanish government’s Plan Reinicia Auto+; this is a recovery initiative launched in response to the DANA weather event of October 2024, which caused the loss of approximately 120,000 vehicles. The plan provides subsidies of up to €10,000 for new BEVs and PHEVs purchased to replace insured vehicles written off due to DANA. Meanwhile, subsidies for other Euro 6-compliant powertrain types are limited to half that amount. As of March 2025, about 14% of subsidy requests were for BEVs and PHEVs, while HEVs accounted for 40%. The Valencian Community has seen a 141% YTD increase in new BEV registrations compared with the same period in 2024; this is the second-highest growth among Spain’s autonomous regions and the strongest among the country’s largest regional markets. Registrations of PHEVs rose even more sharply, with a 160% increase YTD over the same period in 2024, the highest of all of Spain’s autonomous regions. 

Moreover, in April 2025, the Spanish government reactivated the MOVES III program, an incentive scheme aimed at promoting the purchase of new zero- and low-emission vehicles and the installation of private and publicly accessible electric vehicle chargers. Originally launched in 2021, the program was extended (with retroactive effect from January 1) and will remain in force either until the end of 2025 or until the allocated €400 million in funding is exhausted. Incentives for the purchase of new electric vehicles with an electric range exceeding 90 km are €4,500 per vehicle, and that rises to €7,000 if a vehicle older than 7 years is scrapped as part of the transaction. For the installation of chargers, private individuals are eligible to receive 70%–80% of the installation costs. 

Figure 5. Share of battery electric and plug-in hybrid electric in new passenger car registrations in Spain

Definitions, data sources, methodology, and assumptions

• Manufacturer pools: Automakers are allowed to form pools to jointly comply with CO2 targets. For this publication, the 2025 pools listed in the European Commission’s “M1 pooling list”, version of 15 March 2025, is used. 2024 closed pools from this list have been carried over into 2025, even in the absence of a 2025 formal declaration, as they typically remain stable due to ongoing commercial affiliations (e.g., the BMW, Hyundai, and Kia pools). In contrast, only open pools that have been confirmed for 2025 are included, as their composition tends to change more frequently than closed pools. Additionally, it is assumed that the Renault Group forms a closed passenger car pool in 2025 with its affiliated manufacturers. The main brands are: BMW pool (BMW, Mini), Hyundai pool (Hyundai), Kia pool (Kia), Mercedes-Volvo-Polestar pool (Mercedes-Benz, Polestar, Smart, Volvo), Renault pool (Dacia, Renault), Tesla-Stellantis-Toyota pool (Citroën, Fiat, Ford, Jeep, Mazda, Opel, Peugeot, Suzuki, Tesla, Toyota), Volkswagen (Audi, Cupra, Porsche, SEAT, Škoda, VW). Nissan and SAIC are large passenger car manufacturers not part of a pool. 

• Abbreviations: AC = alternating current; CO2 = carbon dioxide emissions; DC = direct current; g/km = grams per kilometer; YTD = year-to-date; ZLEV = zero- and low-emission vehicle. 

• Technical scope: This publication focuses on new passenger car registrations. Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are powered exclusively by an electric motor, with no additional source of propulsion. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) combine a conventional combustion engine with an electric propulsion system that can be recharged via an external power source. Hybrid electric vehicles here include full hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs) and mild hybrid electric vehicles (MHEVs). HEVs and MHEVs integrate two propulsion systems, usually a combustion engine and an electric propulsion system that cannot be recharged via an external power source. Key differences between HEVs and MHEVs are the system voltage and system power. This enables HEVs to drive partially pure electric, while the electric propulsion system of MHEVs is typically only capable of assisting the combustion engine. For more on HEVs and MHEVs see: Jan Dornoff et al., Mild-Hybrid Vehicles: A Near Term Technology Trend for CO2 Emissions Reduction (International Council on Clean Transportation, 2022), https://theicct.org/publication/mild-hybrid-emissions-jul22/. 

• Geographic scope: The European CO2 regulation for vehicle manufacturers applies to all countries of the European Economic Area (EEA). This includes the 27 Member States of the European Union plus Iceland, Liechtenstein, and Norway. Data for new car registrations and shares of electric vehicles in this publication cover all of these countries, with the exception of Cyprus, Liechtenstein and Malta. Data for CO2 emission levels additionally omits Bulgaria and Romania.  

• Data sources: Dataforce (new vehicle registrations), European Environment Agency (vehicle mass and eco-innovation credits). Historical values are regularly updated to reflect all latest data available. 

• Results may change over time: Registrations and/or CO2 data may be retrospectively updated by some of the national type-approval authorities. 

• Test procedures: CO2 values are provided according to the Worldwide harmonized Light vehicles Test Procedure (WLTP). 

• Flexible compliance mechanisms: To facilitate meeting their CO2 targets, manufacturers can make use of a number of compliance mechanisms: (1) Manufacturers can reduce their CO2 level by up to 6 g/km by deploying eco-innovation technologies. As a conservative estimate, we apply the 2023 level of eco-innovation CO2 emission reductions per brand. For more on the methodology used, see: Uwe Tietge, Peter Mock, and Jan Dornoff, Overview and Evaluation of Eco-Innovations in European Passenger Car CO2 Standards (International Council on Clean Transportation, 2018), https://theicct.org/publications/eco-innovations-european-passenger-car-co2-standards; (2) If a manufacturer’s ZLEV share exceeds 25% (cars) or 17% (vans), its CO2 target is increased by the same number of percentage points, up to a maximum of 5%. This adjustment is referred to as the ZLEV factor, while the target before adjustment is called the manufacturer reference target. The manufacturer target is calculated by multiplying the reference target by the ZLEV factor. ZLEVs are BEVs and vehicles with CO2 emissions of 50 g/km (WLTP) or less. For details on the ZLEV factor mechanism, see: Jan Dornoff, CO2 emission standards for new passenger cars and vans in the European Union (International Council on Clean Transportation, 2023), https://theicct.org/publication/eu-co2-standards-cars-vans-may23/.  

• Mass-based targets: For each manufacturer or manufacturer pool, a specific 2025 CO2 target value applies, depending on the average WLTP test mass of the new vehicles registered. For this publication, we assume the average WLTP test mass per manufacturer pool remains the same as in 2023; the average 2023 BEV and non-BEV test mass for each manufacturer was calculated based on EEA data and then weighted according to their year-to-date 2025 BEV market shares. For more on the methodology used, see: Uwe Tietge, Jan Dornoff, and Peter Mock, CO2 Emissions From New Passenger Cars in Europe: Car Manufacturers’ Performance in 2023 (International Council Clean Transportation, 2024), https://theicct.org/publication/co2-emissions-new-pv-europe-car-manufacturers-performance-2023-sept24/. 

• 2025-2027 averaging: Rather than being required to meet the CO2 target applying from 2025 onwards in each individual year, manufacturers are granted the flexibility to comply based on their average CO2 emissions over the three-year period 2025-2027. This means that manufacturers may exceed their CO2 targets in one or more years, provided that any excess emissions are balanced out by equivalent over-compliance in other years within the averaging period. For more details on the provision, see ICCT, Public comments on the European Commission proposal to introduce a 3-year “averaging” provision for the CO2 standards regulation for new cars and vans (International Council on Clean Transportation, 2025), https://theicct.org/wp-content/uploads/2025/03/PublicComments-Averaging-final-27March.pdf. 

• Owner types: This publication considers four types of owners: private cars, company fleets, short-term rentals, and car dealers and manufacturers. The private car category includes all registrations under private individuals, including those of self-employed persons, provided the vehicles are not registered under a company name. Private leasing is also included. Company fleets encompass all vehicles registered to companies, excluding those intended for resale or rental. This category includes company and public administration fleets, commercial long-term rentals, commercial leases, taxis, driving schools, diplomats, etc. The size of the fleet and the extent to which the vehicles are used privately are not considered relevant. The short-term rentals type covers all registrations under large or small national and local rental companies. It also covers all vehicles flagged by authorities as being used for self-drive rental purposes. The car dealers and manufacturers type includes all vehicles registered by car dealers and manufacturers. For automakers, this includes vehicles used for press purposes as well as those for their employees. New registrations data by owner type is aggregated for the following 19 European countries: Austria, Belgium, Czechia, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Iceland, Italy, Latvia, Lithuania, the Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and United Kingdom. 

 

 

This publication is a collaboration between the ICCT, IMT-IDDRI, and ECCO think tank.

The post European Market Monitor: Cars and vans (April 2025) appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

Black carbon, typically produced by incomplete combustion in marine engines, contributes to global warming and is linked to health impacts, including lung cancer, respiratory illness, and cardiopulmonary disease. It is considered a key driver of the rapid loss of Arctic Sea ice, a region experiencing significant environmental stress due to rapid warming, with temperatures rising three to four times faster than the global average.  

“Our findings show that ships connected to EU trade, regardless of their flag, are major drivers of black carbon pollution in the Arctic,” says Liudmila Osipova, ICCT Senior Researcher and lead author of the study. “Recognizing these emissions in future policies could help the EU better align its climate goals with its real footprint in the Arctic.” 

The EU generally accounts for Arctic shipping emissions only from ships flying EU flags (“EU-flagged ships”) in the region. This study expands the scope by also assessing emissions from ships traveling to and from EU ports (“EU-regulated ships”). The study compares the fleet composition, fuel use, and BC and CO2 emissions of these ships across both the broadly-defined Geographic Arctic (north of 59°N) and the IMO Arctic as defined by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) Polar Code. 

Between 2015 and 2021, the study finds, BC emissions in the IMO Arctic nearly doubled. EU-regulated ships contributed significantly: among vessels of at least 5,000 GT, EU-regulated ships emitted 52 tonnes of BC, accounting for 23% of total emissions. This is nearly twice the 27 tonnes emitted by EU-flagged ships, which made up 12% of emissions. In the broader Geographic Arctic, EU-regulated ships emitted 317 tonnes of BC and 1.9 million tonnes of CO₂ representing 44% and 60% of emissions from vessels of the same size. By comparison, EU-flagged ships contributed just 145 tonnes of BC and 726,000 tonnes of CO₂ or 20% and 23% of the emissions, respectively. 

Despite its potent climate and health impacts, BC remains one of the most unregulated short-lived climate and air pollutants. While the EU has committed to addressing shipping emissions as part of its broader Arctic climate strategy, BC emissions have not been included in the scope of EU maritime policies, such as FuelEU Maritime and the extension of the EU Emissions Trading System to the maritime sector.   

END

Media contact
Sophie Ehmsen, communications@theicct.org

Publication details Title: Black carbon and CO₂ emissions from EU-regulated shipping in the Arctic
Authors: Liudmila Osipova and Ketan Gore

Please use this link when citing this report: theicct.org/publication/black-carbon-and-co2-emissions-from-eu-regulated-shipping-in-the-arctic-may25

About the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT)
The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) is an independent nonprofit research organization founded to provide exceptional, objective, timely research and technical and scientific analysis to environmental regulators. Our work empowers policymakers and others worldwide to improve the environmental performance of road, marine, and air transportation to benefit public health and mitigate climate change. We began collaborating and working as a group of like-minded policymakers and technical experts, formalizing our status as a mission-driven non-governmental organization in 2005.

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The post Black carbon emissions from EU shipping in the Arctic likely higher than assumed, ICCT study reveals appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

Key findings

• In 2021, nearly three-quarters of the ships operating in the Geographic Arctic and half of those in the IMO Arctic were navigating to or from EU ports. Of the 3,171 ships of 5,000 gross tonnage (GT) or more identified in the Geographic Arctic, 2,315 reported to the EU MRV (73%), while only 816 were flagged to an EU state (26%). In the IMO Arctic, 278 of the 564 ships of 5,000 GT or more reported to the EU MRV (49%), while only 112 flew an EU flag (20%).
• In 2021, ships flagged to Norway burned the most fuel by mass in the Geographic Arctic, while Russian-flagged ships burned the most in the IMO Arctic. Norwegian-flagged vessels consumed an estimated 33% of the 3,789 kilotons (kt) of fuel used in the Geographic Arctic in 2021, while Russian-flagged vessels burned closed to half of the 877 kt of fuel consumed in the IMO Arctic the same year.
• Black carbon emissions in the IMO Arctic nearly doubled between 2015 and 2021. In 2021, Arctic shipping emitted 1.5 kt of BC and 12 kt of CO₂ north of 59°N, with about a quarter of these emissions occurring within the boundaries of the IMO Arctic. This indicates a strong growth trend in BC emissions in the IMO Arctic, from 193 tonnes in 2015 to 413 tonnes in 2021.
• Black carbon and CO₂ emissions from EU-regulated ships of at least 5,000 GT are nearly double those from EU-flagged ships. In the Geographic Arctic, EU-regulated ships contributed 44% of BC emissions and 60% of CO₂ emissions from ships at or above 5,000 GT, while EU-flagged vessels accounted for 20% and 23%, respectively. Notably, 72% of BC emissions from EU-regulated ships came from residual fuels. Liquefied natural gas (LNG)-fueled vessels accounted for 31% of the total CO₂ emissions from EU-regulated ships, despite contributing only 2% of BC emissions from all EU-regulated ships operating in the Geographic Arctic. In the IMO Arctic, EU-regulated ships accounted for 23% of BC emissions and 49% of CO₂ emissions from ships at or above 5,000 GT, while EU-flagged ships at or above 5,000 GT contributed only 12% and 20%, respectively.

Figure. Black carbon emitted in the Geographic Arctic and in the IMO Arctic by EU-flagged and EU-regulated vessels, by ship class

The post  Black Carbon and CO2 Emissions from EU-Regulated Shipping in the Arctic appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

Prior to joining ICCT, she completed her Ph.D. in Civil Engineering Systems within the Colaborative Doctoral Partnership between the Transport Research Center of the Technical University of Madrid and the Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transport Unit of the Joint Research Center of the European Commission. During this time, she combined her doctoral project, which analyzed the impact of shared mobility services on car dependency in European cities from a behavioral perspective, with contributions to science-for-policy projects such as the 100 Neutral Cities mission.

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The UK Department for Transport (DfT) published the outcome of the consultation on its zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) regulation last month and it generally signals more flexibility and some relaxation of the policy. Let’s take a look at a few reasons to celebrate, a few areas of concern, and a few key points where the yet-to-be-determined details will make a big difference. 

I’ll start with some good news: There are no changes to the regulation’s annual targets for 2025–2030. Regardless of flexibilities, the annual targets set the pace for reductions in emissions, and the targets are staying at 80% ZEVs for cars and 70% ZEVs for vans in 2030. (Here ZEVs include battery electric vehicles and hydrogen fuel-cell electric vehicles, but not plug-in hybrids or vehicles using e-fuels.) This remains a world-leading regulation. The United Kingdom also remains committed to 100% ZEV sales for cars and vans in 2035, as DfT reiterated that there are no exceptions to that target. 

Now, about the newly proposed flexibilities. The regulation includes two “big” ones: (1) transfer of credits for sales of non-ZEVs with lower carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and (2) borrowing. Both were extended through 2029, rather than expiring after 2026, as originally planned. In terms of the borrowing flexibility, the limits for cars in the extended years are relatively low—20% in 2027, 15% in 2028, and 10% in 2029 (roughly aligned with the ICCT’s suggestions). All borrowed allowances must be repaid by 2030 and there’s no mention of lowering or removing the 3.5% “interest rate” applied when these are used. Maintaining that interest for the duration of the policy would be critical for encouraging timely compliance and sticking to the United Kingdom’s legally binding carbon budgets. 

A large opening for PHEVs 

The much bigger change is to the ability to earn credit in the ZEV scheme by reducing the average CO₂ emissions of non-ZEVs. This flexibility was originally strictly limited: It was only available in 2024, 2025, and 2026, and these sales could only account for a declining fraction of a manufacturer’s overall ZEV mandate compliance. This reflected the reality that automakers had already invested in hybrids and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) and couldn’t change their product mixes dramatically in the near term. It allowed them to get credit for the reduced emissions from those vehicles while still requiring a focus on ZEVs in the medium term. Table 1 shows both the original (current) limits and the newly proposed limits on how much manufacturers can use this flexibility for cars as a percentage of their annual ZEV credit requirement.  

Table 1. Original and proposed new limits on the transfer of non-ZEV CO₂ credits for cars in the UK ZEV regulation

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030
Original (current)	65%	45%	25%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Proposed flexibility in consultation outcome	65%	90%	80%	70%	60%	50%	0%

As you can see, the consultation outcome allows for a relatively high portion of transfers through 2029. The changes to compliance with the ZEV sales requirement make the overall regulation function more like a technology-neutral CO₂ standard, at least for the next 3 years or so. This is bad news for any certainty regarding future ZEV sales (and hurts the case for investing in charging infrastructure and ZEV supply chains), but the impact on total CO₂ savings from the regulation is difficult to forecast. That’s in part because of the way PHEVs are treated in the consultation outcome.  

Although the United Kingdom is adopting new PHEV utility factors in line with the Euro 6e emission standard, it will allow manufacturers to submit the “old” PHEV CO₂ scores, which are known to be artificially low, for the purposes of complying with the non-ZEV CO₂ score. And it’s not clear how long this will last. When combined with the relaxed limits on non-ZEV CO₂ transfer, this has the effect of making PHEVs a very compelling option for compliance. PHEVs would effectively provide more than 0.5 ZEV credits per vehicle, especially as more longer-range PHEVs are coming on the market. So, while PHEVs don’t count as ZEVs, the regulation now rewards their sale much more than before, particularly in the early years. 

How could this look in practice? The figure below illustrates a scenario in which manufacturers maximize the credit transfers and sell more PHEVs. Here all PHEVs match the specifications of the Volkswagen Tiguan eHybrid, which was the best-selling PHEV in the United Kingdom in the first quarter of 2025, and we assume that manufacturers do not use any borrowing. Manufacturers may also sell PHEVs to comply with the non-ZEV CO₂ standard (which does not require any reductions from 2021–2030), but these cannot be double-counted in the ZEV standard and are not shown in the figure. The new changes to the UK regulation mean that in 2025, hardly any ZEV sales would be required at all, and through 2029, manufacturers could comply by selling more PHEVs than ZEVs. 

Figure 1. Maximum contribution of PHEVs to ZEV mandate compliance before and after proposed changes

Important decisions are still to come

Of course, the ZEV mandate isn’t the only policy influencing the market. If PHEVs don’t receive fiscal incentives or tax benefits, most manufacturers are unlikely to pursue a PHEV-heavy compliance pathway. Thus, whether the flexibilities create a sort of PHEV “lock-in” in the United Kingdom is probably going to depend on when DfT switches to using the new utility factors and how PHEVs are taxed.

Because the consultation remains “subject to further engagement with industry on detailed legislation,” switching to the Euro 6e PHEV utility factors as soon as possible, and no later than January 1, 2028, is an important opportunity to strengthen the policy. It’s also worth exploring whether the limits on flexibilities could be tightened more quickly, and it’s important to maintain the interest rate on borrowing.

Taken as a whole, this regulation keeps the United Kingdom among the global leaders. When thinking in terms of long-term climate goals, the most important opportunity is to lock in the 100% ZEVs by 2035 ambition by finalizing the regulation for 2031–2035. This would provide a solid signal of the medium- and long-term trajectory of the market and ensure that all stakeholders—including vehicle manufacturers, fleets, charging providers, and electricity grid operators—are ready to invest and make the United Kingdom’s ZEV transition a success.

Author

Dale Hall
Program Lead

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The post Flexibility or uncertainty? Risks of the proposed changes to the UK Zero Emission Vehicle Mandate appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

The provision, which is pending implementation by the Polish government, allows entities supplying renewable electricity to electric vehicles to earn tradeable credits. These credits can be sold to fuel suppliers to use towards renewable energy use targets.

The study estimates that, by 2030, the total cost of ownership (TCO) of a battery electric truck in Poland—including the costs of purchase, maintenance, and operation—could be reduced by up to 10% through the use of electricity credits, representing significant savings for fleet operators in a sector with narrow margins.

“Crediting the charging that occurs at depots would help Poland’s heavy-duty vehicle sector cut costs and accelerate fleet electrification,” said Chelsea Baldino, Lead of the ICCT Fuels Program. “Policymakers now have an opportunity to strengthen this critical sector of Poland’s economy by crediting the charging happening at depots, including those privately owned, during national implementation of the RED III.”

With added short-term incentives, electric trucks could become even cheaper to own and operate than diesel trucks. For a model year 2030 truck, with crediting in place, the battery electric trucks have a 24% lower TCO than their diesel counterparts.

Poland, one of Europe’s largest freight transport markets, has yet to fully implement RED III provisions. Extending credit eligibility to depot charging—including at privately owned sites—could strengthen both the environmental performance and economic competitiveness of the country’s logistics sector.

-END-

Publication details
Title: Electricity crediting for depot charging: Assessing a cost advantage for truck operators in Poland
Authors: Jane O’Malley, Hussein Basma, Chelsea Baldino
Please use this link when citing the report: theicct.org/publication/electricity-crediting-for-depot-charging-assessing-a-cost-advantage-for-poland-truck-operators-may25

Media contact
Susana Irles, Senior Communications Specialist
communications@theicct.org

About the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT)
The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) is an independent nonprofit research organization founded to provide exceptional, objective, timely research and technical and scientific analysis to environmental regulators. Our work empowers policymakers and others worldwide to improve the environmental performance of road, marine, and air transportation to benefit public health and mitigate climate change. We began collaborating and working as a group of like-minded policymakers and technical experts, formalizing our status as a mission-driven non-governmental organization in 2005.

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The post New study finds electricity credits could cut costs for Polish truck operators by up to 10% appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

Nowe badanie wykazało, że mechanizm kredytowania energii elektrycznej mogą obniżyć koszty dla polskich operatorów ciężarówek nawet o 10%

Berlin/Warszawa, 21 maja 2025 r. – Nowy raport the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) wskazuje znaczący potencjał na obniżenie kosztów operacyjnych w polskim sektorze transportu towarowego. Wykorzystując mechanizm przewidziany w unijnej Dyrektywie w sprawie energii odnawialnej (RED III), można będzie znacząco obniżyć całkowite koszty eksploatacji ciężarówek i przyspieszyć ich elektryfikację w Polsce, która pozostaje liderem przewozów towarowych w Europie pod względem wolumenu.

Zapisy wynikające z RED III, które obecnie oczekują na wdrożenie przez polski rząd, umożliwią podmiotom dostarczającym odnawialną energię elektryczną do pojazdów elektrycznych zdobywanie na uzyskanie specjalnych, zbywalnych kredytów (jednostek emisji). Kredyty te mogą być sprzedawane dostawcom paliw w celu wykorzystania ich do realizacji swoich celów w zakresie udziału energii odnawialnej.

ICCT szacuje, że do 2030 roku całkowity koszt posiadania (TCO) ciężarówki elektrycznej zasilanej bateriami w Polsce – uwzględniający koszty zakupu, utrzymania i eksploatacji – może spaść nawet o 10% dzięki wykorzystaniu kredytów za energię elektryczną. Dla przewoźników działających w branży o niskich marżach to realne oszczędności.

„Kredytowanie energii elektrycznej wykorzystywanej do ładowania w zajezdniach może znacznie obniżyć koszty i przyspieszyć elektryfikację flot pojazdów ciężarowych w Polsce” – podkreśla Chelsea Baldino, kierująca programem paliwowym ICCT. – „Politycy mają obecnie szansę wzmocnić ten kluczowy sektor gospodarki, uwzględniając ładowanie w bazach – również tych prywatnych – przy wdrażaniu zapisów RED III.”

Dzięki dodatkowym krótkoterminowym zachętom jak np. dotacje, elektryczne ciężarówki mogą stać się jeszcze tańsze w eksploatacji niż te z silnikiem diesla. W przypadku ciężarówek wyprodukowanych w 2030 roku, przy zastosowaniu mechanizmem kredytowania, pojazdy ciężarowe z napędem elektrycznym mają o 24% niższe całkowite koszty posiadania (TCO) niż ich odpowiedniki z silnikami diesla.

Polska, będąca jednym z największych rynków transportu towarowego w Europie, nie wdrożyła jeszcze postanowień Dyrektywy RED III. Rozszerzenie możliwości uzyskania kredytów za ładowanie w zajezdniach – również tych prywatnych – może zwiększyć zarówno efektywność ekologiczną, jak i konkurencyjność ekonomiczną sektora logistycznego w kraju.

-KONIEC-

Szczegóły publikacji

Tytuł: Kredytowanie energii elektrycznej za ładowanie w bazach transportowych. Analiza potencjalnych oszczędności kosztowych dla polskich operatorów ciężarówek.
Autorzy: Jane O’Malley, Hussein Basma, Chelsea Baldino
Proszę użyć tego linku przy cytowaniu raportu: theicct.org/publication/electricity-crediting-for-depot-charging-assessing-a-cost-advantage-for-poland-truck-operators-may25

Kontakt dla mediów:

Susana Irles, Starsza Specjalistka ds. Komunikacji
susana.irles@theicct.org

O the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT)

The International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT) to niezależna organizacja badawcza non-profit, która powstała w celu dostarczania rzetelnych, bezstronnych, aktualnych badań oraz analiz technicznych i naukowych dla organów regulacyjnych w dziedzinie ochrony środowiska. ICCT wspiera decydentów w podejmowaniu działań poprawiających efektywność środowiskową transportu drogowego, morskiego i lotniczego, aby przynieść korzyści dla zdrowia publicznego i klimatu. Rozpoczęliśmy współpracę z inicjatywy podobnie myślących polityków i ekspertów technicznych, formalizując nasz status jako organizacji pozarządowej w 2005 roku.

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The post Nowe badanie wykazało, że mechanizm kredytowania energii elektrycznej mogą obniżyć koszty dla polskich operatorów ciężarówek nawet o 10% appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

Past ICCT research has shown that increasing BEV sales is the most cost-effective option for manufacturers to comply with the CO₂ emission standards for both light- and heavy-duty vehicles. A new provision in the Renewable Energy Directive (RED) III could help accelerate battery electric truck adoption once implemented by EU Member States. This measure provides financial incentives for renewable electricity delivered to electric vehicles, including at depots—the backbone of the HDV charging ecosystem. 

In Poland, Europe’s leading goods transporter by volume and the sixth-largest economy, truck and charge point operators could stand to benefit significantly from the RED III’s electricity crediting provisions. The Polish government has yet to implement RED III transport targets or establish a market-based mechanism for fuel suppliers.  

This study examines the potential impact of RED III charging credits, particularly from depot charging, on the total cost of ownership (TCO) of Poland’s most common heavy-duty vehicle—the long-haul tractor-trailer. It estimates the amount of renewable electricity credits these vehicles could generate annually under different decarbonization scenarios for Poland’s electricity grid and median EU credit prices. The results suggest that the Polish government can support the electrification of the heavy-duty vehicle sector by implementing RED III electricity crediting, particularly for charging at depots. With crediting in place, we find that model year 2030 battery electric trucks have a 24% lower TCO than diesel trucks.

Figure 4. Total cost of ownership in 2030 assuming a moderate share of renewables and median EU credit prices

The post Electricity crediting for depot charging: Assessing a cost advantage for Poland truck operators appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.

There has been a remarkable rise in new battery electric vehicle (BEV) registrations in Belgium over the last few years, with nearly 128,000 units registered in 2024, a 37% increase over the previous year. The growth between 2022 and 2023 was even more impressive, as new registrations grew by 148% (Figure 1). This case highlights how progressive, targeted government policies can help grow the BEV market. Let’s dive into it.

Figure 1. Total new registrations of battery electric cars by year in Belgium

Sources: ACEA and the European Alternative Fuels Observatory  

In 2024, more than one in four new passenger cars registered in Belgium was a BEV (28%). This percentage was significantly higher than in other key European markets, including the United Kingdom (20%), France (17%), and Germany (14%), as shown in Table 1. From 2023 to 2024, Belgium recorded the largest growth in BEV shares among these markets, with an increase of almost 9 percentage points.

Table 1. Shares of battery electric cars in new registrations in key markets  

	2024	2023	Percentage point change 2024 vs. 2023
Belgium	28%	20%	+8.9
United Kingdom	20%	17%	+3.0
France	17%	17%	+0.1
Germany	14%	18%	-4.9
Spain	6%	5%	+0.2
Italy	4%	4%	0.0

Source: ACEA  

Companies are vital to these changes. In 2024, company cars accounted for 62% of the over 448,000 new passenger car registrations in Belgium; that’s about 276,000 cars, 40% of them BEVs. In comparison, private individuals registered around 172,000 passenger cars, just 10% of them BEVs. Of the almost 128,000 new BEVs registered in 2024, 87% were by companies. Additionally, by the fourth quarter of 2024, there were nearly 74,000 charging points accessible to the public in Belgium, a 66% jump over the same quarter the previous year.

This isn’t surprising when you consider that a key piece of legislation implemented in Belgium in December 2021 encouraged the uptake of zero-emission vehicles in company fleets. One part of the story in Belgium involves tax deductions for company cars. This approach is gradually discouraging the acquisition of traditional internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) and plug-in-hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) while offering benefits for BEVs and fuel-cell electric vehicles (FCEVs). For ICEVs purchased, leased, or rented by companies between July 2023 and December 2025, the tax deduction will drop from a maximum of 100% until end 2024 to 0% by January 2028 (Table 2). On the other hand, BEVs and FCEVs bought or leased until December 2026 will still benefit from a full 100% tax deduction; starting January 2027, deductible rates on these will also decrease to a maximum of 67.5% by 2031.

Table 2. Tax deductibility for company cars in Belgium by fuel type (status: April 2025)

LPG = liquefied petroleum gas; CNG = compressed natural gas

The second part of the story is the private use of a company car by an employee. If an employee has the permission by his employer to use a company car for personal purposes, this is a taxable benefit. Consequently, it will be treated as part of an employee’s income and taxed accordingly. The private use of a company car by an employee is a common practice in Europe. In Belgium, the benefit in kind (BIK) is calculated based on factors like car catalogue value, fuel type, carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, and registration date. The rates for BEVs and FCEVs have remained stable, while CO₂ emission rates and minimum benefit amounts for ICEVs have become stricter over the past decade. The solidarity contribution, also known as the CO₂ contribution, is the employer’s obligation; this is a monthly charge based on the vehicle’s CO₂ emissions, fuel type, and an indexation coefficient. Since July 2023, an “increase coefficient multiplier” has been added for ICEVs. For example, in 2024, the yearly solidarity contribution for a diesel car with CO₂ emissions of 129 g/km exceeded €1,900, whereas for a BEV it was less than €400.

Figure 2 shows selected policies and monthly shares of new BEV registrations beginning in January 2022. While there are fluctuations among the months, the policies aimed at companies appear to have contributed to a rise in BEV adoption when considering the yearly averages.

Figure 2. Monthly BEV shares in new passenger car registrations in Belgium and selected policy measures

The Belgian case highlights that progressive and targeted government policies that both promote BEVs and discourage ICEVs can lead to a notable increase in new BEV registrations. It also illustrates the positive role that company cars can play in increasing the demand for electric vehicles and pulling a market toward faster electrification.

Author

Sandra Wappelhorst
Research Lead

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The post Belgium’s tax incentives drive electric vehicles in corporate fleets appeared first on International Council on Clean Transportation.